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Dec 09

Aramon’s NFL Picks Week 14 Part 2

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

It seems as if we have got our swagger back. After a sweep and huge win last Sunday, we carried our momentum over with another big win on Thursday Night. This time of year it gets tough and really calls for trust in the analyzing process. As the season winds down there are still values to be had, but with some teams out of contention and others just cruising to the playoffs, the point spreads and totals can get tricky. Its this time of the season where taking a usually untouchable double digit point spread, can actually make the most sense. We did it Thursday, we do it again today, hopefully with similar results.

A recap of Thursday’s result and where we stand to date:

Thursday’s results : +8.0 units
10% house vig on losses : 0.0 units
Total to date : +34.2 units profit

For information purposes the betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of £1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide £1000 by 100 (=£10) and multiply that by 5 (=£50). A running total will be kept at the top of each pick article so that you can keep track of how well/poorly Aramon is doing this season.

Today’s Games as I see it:

For those not familiar with sportsbetting when a number is shown next to a team’s name that number represents the handicap for an even money wager. So in our first pick of this week the Washington Redskins would have to beat the Baltimore Ravens by more than 1 point for us to win this bet. So place this wager at any book that offers an even money wager with the Redskins handicapped by 1 point or less.

When over/under bets are discussed this is in reference to the combined number of points scored by both teams. So in this weeks picks, in the Philadelphia Eagles vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers game, if their combined scores are over 47.5 points (at least 48 points), you win this bet.

Washington Redskins -1 over Baltimore Ravens : Bet 7 units

Result : Washington Redskins 31 – 28 Baltimore Ravens

Washington is hot, Baltimore is not. I predict a pretty tough day for the Ravens. Baltimore has really been struggling offensively since their 55 point blow out of the troubled Oakland Raiders November 11th. Since that game they have only scored a combined total of 49 points in the last three games. Two of these games have been with the Steelers and have been brutally physical as always with these division rivals and it seems to have really slowed this Ravens team. Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco has been floundering of late throwing for under 200 yards both times against the Steelers, and needing an absolute once in a lifetime gift of a 4th and 29 4th down conversion to beat a hopeless San Diego Charger team. Add to this their usually strong defense, which is what this teams reputation is built on, is not only not as dominant this year, its filled with physical ailments. Perennial star linebacker Ray Lewis is out indefinitely, and now last years defensive player of the year Terrell Suggs is a game time decision with a torn biceps muscle. Even if he does play, no doubt he will be severely compromised. Thats exactly what you don’t need when facing this fresh Washington Redskin team with its young superstars. Rookie phenom quarterback Robert Griffin III (RGIII) has led the Redskins back from the ashes with 3 straight wins, coming at the expense of division rivals the Eagles, Cowboys, and defending champs NY Giants. RGIII has thrown 9 touchdowns during this winning streak with only 1 interception. His fellow rookie, running back Alfred Morris is just punishing defenses with his aggressive running style as he is tied for 3rd in the league with 1106 rushing yards. I love the match up of RGIII at home against this banged up shell of its former self Raven defense. Match that with the fact Baltimore just doesn’t score points on the road, and against a Redskin team with young superstars fighting for a playoff berth, Ravens may just sit this one out, whether they like it or not.

Philadelphia Eagles vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Take the over total of 47.5 points : Bet 8 units

Result : Philadelphia 23 – 21 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a great game for the high flying Buccaneers to right the ship and light up the scoreboard at home. After back to back losses at home to two of the best teams in the league , Atlanta and Denver, facing an Eagle team coming in on an 8 game losing streak should revitalize a Tampa team in need for a lesser opponent to whip up on. Even with those tough recent losses this high powered Tampa team has hit the over total in 8 of its 9 games. There is no doubt they will do their part to run this score through the roof against an Eagle team that just can’t stop anybody from scoring. The bright spot for the Eagles lately has been the emergence of rookie running back Bryce Brown. He has run for 347 yards and 4 touchdowns in his last 2 games. The counterpoint to that is he has also lost 3 fumbles including 1 that was returned for a touchdown in those 2 games, so by himself he accounted for 5 touchdowns in those games which makes him a double threat for points to the over total. Also Eagle quarterback Nick Foles is coming off his best game as a pro throwing for 251 yards and a touchdown leading his team to a season high 33 points. Against a weak Tampa Bay pass defense, Foles should be able to find his way to score some points. But with the Eagles giving up close to 30 points a game during this current 8 game losing streak, look for the real scoring to be done by Tampa quarterback Josh Freeman and company. Bucs desperately need a win keep any playoff hopes alive so look for them to come into this game firing fast and often. Eagles should score enough to help the total, but Tampa should send this score over that total before the 4th quarter.

Seattle Seahawks -10 over Arizona Cardinals : Bet 5 units

Result : Seattle Seahawks 58 – 0 Arizona Cardinals

Taking teams minus double digit figures is not usually the smart way to handicap NFL games, but for the second time in a week, I feel its the smart play. Actually the rule of thumb should be, take Seattle at home against anyone, against any spread. They are 5-0 at home this year, and more importantly 5-0 against the spread as well. Even without their massive home field advantage the Seahawks have emerged as a true playoff contender, playing at home just seals the deal. With their quarterback Russell Wilson really stepping up and maturing throughout the season, their offense has become the asset needed to compliment a very strong defense. Even with the 4 game suspension of Seattle cornerback Brandon Browner, the Seahawks should manhandle a totally inept Cardinal offense that could only manage 6 points against a feeble Jets team last week. The Cardinals with 8 straight losses and possibly the worst quarterback situation in the league, (not having 1 true starter available on the team), will be looking for their first win in Seattle since 2009, not gonna happen. I will give the Cardinals credit, their defense has been pretty good which may keep this game close early. But as the Cardinal offense is so unbelievably bad, look for defensive points to be scored by the Seahawks as well as them to be have great starting field position all game. The Arizona defense should be totally exhausted by the the 4th quarter due to the bad positions their struggling offense puts them in as well as being out on the field all game. Look for heavy doses of Seattle’s running back “The Beast” Marshawn Lynch to capitalize on this and cap off lots off scoring for Seattle in the second half to put turn this game into a complete and dominating blow out.

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