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Aramon’s NFL Picks Week 14 Part 3

Posted by THEPOGG on Dec 10, 2012

I like it, another winning day under our belt! A modest win, but they all add up to the big picture, and that’s making money. Well tonight is just the chance to do it. We will be putting a lot on the line considering its just 1 game, but when its right its right. This is one of those chances where one game gives us multiple money making opportunities, so lets get to making some money!

A recap of Sunday’s result and where we stand to date:

Sunday’s results : +4.0 units
10% house vig on losses : 0.8 units
Total to date : +37.4 units profit

For information purposes the betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of £1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide £1000 by 100 (=£10) and multiply that by 5 (=£50). A running total will be kept at the top of each pick article so that you can keep track of how well/poorly Aramon is doing this season.

Tonight’s Games as I see it:

For those not familiar with sportsbetting when a number is shown next to a team’s name that number represents the handicap for an even money wager. So in our first pick of this week the New England Patriots would have to beat the Houston Texans by more than 4 point for us to win this bet. So place this wager at any book that offers an even money wager with the Patriots handicapped by 4 point or less.

When over/under bets are discussed this is in reference to the combined number of points scored by both teams. So in this weeks picks, in the New England Patriots vs Houston Texans game, if their combined scores are over 51 points, you win this bet.

New England Patriots -4 over Houston Texans : Bet 6 units

Result : New England Patriots 42 – 14 Houston Texans

This could be a preview of the AFC Championship Game, and I don’t even think its going to be that close. Patriots have won 10 out of their last 11 Monday night games and covered their last 4. This means when Patriot head coach Bill Belichik has extra time to prepare for a team, he rarely loses. The Patriots are by far the best team at home in the last 10 years with a record of 71-14. Even with the 11-1 Texans rolling into town tonight there is there is good reason why the Patriots are favored even over the customary 3 point home field edge. The Texans are a very good team, with an absolute animal on defense in J.J. Watt. With him being just about a shoe in for defensive player of the year, expect Houston to send him and the kitchen sink to be blitzing Brady all night, as the Texans are already the highest rate of blitzing team in the NFL. But this could prove to be the fatal flaw for this strong Houston defense. Tom Brady is the master at handling the blitz, he has thrown 15 of his 25 touchdown passes against teams rushing in extra defenders on him. Short dump off passes to wide receiver Wes Welker should not only neutralize the Texan’s blitz, but also remove the need for the Patriots to try and generate a run game against a stout Houston run defense. This is a big spot for New England as they try and wrestle home field advantage throughout the playoffs from the Texans. Tonight I believe the Patriots will edge closer to that goal with a big win.

New England Patriots vs Houston Texans Take the over total of 51 points : Bet 7 units

Result : New England Patriots 42 – 14 Houston Texans

Not only do I believe the Patriots will Handle the Texans tonight, I believe the over total hits with no problem. Last week aside the Patriot games had gone over the total 9 weeks in a row. They have set a fast pace offense all year and their defense has been a bit suspect. But with Tom Brady lighting up the scoreboard all year, the Patriot offense has served as their defense. The New England uses no huddle schemes more than any other team so their scoring drives are very quick, and they are merciless never easing up on an opponent once the score is out of hand. (see the game against the Colts). While I think the Patriot offense will be too much for Houston, I do believe the Texans will have ample opportunity to score themselves with their talented quarterback Matt Schaub being able to exploit at least some degree a suspect Patriot defense. However, if the lowly jaguars and a struggling Lions teams can hang a total of 68 points on this Houston Texan team, watch out for this uber fast Tom Brady led scoring machine. Even though Houston may be one of the best teams in the NFL this year, tonight just matches up as a barn burner that they won’t be able to keep up with. I expect a very big total tonight.

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