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Dec 16

Aramon’s NFL Picks Week 15 part 2

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

Another fine result on Thursday bolsters our bankroll as well as our confidence. The plays the past couple of weeks have been very strong and steady as its becoming obvious who are the real players left in the season and who is packing it in ready to call it a day. That being said this week has some of the usual suspects being picked, as well as being picked on. We may have also found a team that may be perpetrating a fraud as appearing to be a playoff caliber team, if true it could pay off handsomely down the road. Today we have a good slate of games that should really pad our winning ways and keep our bankroll healthy.

A recap of Thursday’s result and where we stand to date:

Thursday’s results : +5.0 units
10% house vig on losses : 0.0 units
Total to date : +55.4 units profit

For information purposes the betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of £1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide £1000 by 100 (=£10) and multiply that by 5 (=£50). A running total will be kept at the top of each pick article so that you can keep track of how well/poorly Aramon is doing this season.

Today’s Games as I see it:

For those not familiar with sportsbetting when a number is shown next to a team’s name that number represents the handicap for an even money wager. So in our first pick of this week the Denver Broncos would have to beat the Baltimore Ravens by more than 3 points for us to win this bet. So place this wager at any book that offers an even money wager with the Broncos handicapped by 3 points or less.

When over/under bets are discussed this is in reference to the combined number of points scored by both teams. So in this weeks picks, in the New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers game, if their combined scores are over 54 points, you win this bet.

Denver Broncos -3 over Baltimore Ravens : Bet 6 units

Result : Denver Broncos 37 – 17 Baltimore Ravens

I really am under the impression that even though the Baltimore Ravens are 9-4, that they really are a smoke and mirrors team. The Ravens are coming off of 2 straight losses, but when looked at closely really could be 4 straight. Three weeks ago was that miracle 4th and 29 conversion against the Chargers that 99 times out of 100 would have resulted in them losing. The week before that they sqeeked out a 3 point win against a compromised Ben Roethlisberger less Steeler team. Their defense is aging and hurt, and is by far not the dominating force their reputation warrants. Their offense has been stagnant, so much so that they even fired their offensive coordinator with just 3 weeks to go in the season. If they think they needed that kind of shake up while being a 9-4 team, it shows they know they have trouble. it smells of desperation and discord behind the scenes and with Peyton Manning rolling into town this week, the Ravens had better get their ship right or this game could get ugly, and I think it just might. Peyton Manning has owned the Ravens in his career going 8-2 against them. This being largely against a stronger Raven team of past years, and Manning on Colts teams that may not even match up to this season’s Bronco team.Not only does Peyton overmatch his Raven counterpart Joe Flacco by leaps and bounds, but Denver’s Vonn Miller is far away the best defensive player on the field today, and not anyone on this overrated Ravens defensive squad. I believe the Ravens get stripped down and unmasked as a fraudelent 9-4 playoff team today, While the Broncos march towards quite possibly being the top team in the NFL.

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Take the over total of 54 points : Bet 8 units

Result : New Orleans Saints 41 – 0 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This game has lost some of its playoff atmosphere luster as both teams have fallen on hard times of late. While these possibly may not be 2 playoff bound teams duking it out anymore, this should still prove to be a high flying exciting match up. Saints quarterback Drew Brees, one of the best to play the game has uncharacteristically struggled lately causing the potent Saints offense to sputter. Todays match up against a Tampa Bay defense ranked last in the league should be just what Brees needs to get back on track. Tampa gives up over 330 pass yards a game, and even in his last 2 losses Brees has put up a combined 700 yards. Look for the Saints to send it downfield all day long. Similarly, the Saints lack of defense is a good cure for the struggling Buccaneers. With the Saints giving up 437 yards a game, this explosive Tampa offense should find the end zone on a regular basis all day. Adding to these offensive powerhouses potential is the fact that they have been making mistakes turning the ball over. If the turnover trend continues it could actually help bolster the scoring as both teams are built for quick strikes and capitalizing on opportunistic field position. Look for lots of scoring today on a fast track playing indoors in New Orleans.

Seattle Seahawks -4.5 over Buffalo Bills : Bet 6 units

Result : Seattle Seahawks 50 – 17 Buffalo Bills

Poor Buffalo, they have the undaunting task of facing a red hot Seattle Seahawks team this week. At least the Bills are home…..but not really. This Bills “home” game is being played in Toronto which is essentially a neutral field which negates the few points usually alotted towards the home team advantage. This idea of Buffalo playing a “home” game in Toronto has been going on for a few years now and its been a less than stellar result for the Bills as they are just 1-3 playing up at the Canadian site. But the real problem for the Bills is, they are facing the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle is a force to be reckoned with this year and they are nipping at the heels of the 49ers for their division lead. Right now the Buffalo Bills have the unenviable task of standing in their way. The Bills are no more than a mediocre to bad team facing a Seattle team coming off an absolute 58-0 drubbing of the Arizona Cardinals last week. While I don’t think it will even be that close to a shellacking this week, I fully expect a Seattle beat down of the Bills. Seattle defense has been very impressive and expect Bills quarterback Ryan Fitpatrick to be on his back all day getting loads of pass rush pressure. When he does find himself upright and able to get a pass off, the Seattle secondary is a nightmare for any quarterback, let alone one under pressure prone to mistakes. Buffalo’s running back C.J. Spiller is a legitimate threat, but as Seattle imposes its will on the Bills and takes a lead, Buffalo’s running game will be rendered inconsequential. Contrarily, look for Seattle’s running back Marshawn Lynch to have a big day as Buffalo’s defense wears down from excessive minutes on the field. Seattle started the season just being a formidable home team, they are now just plain formidable period. Besides, while they are not the home team here, neither is the home team itself.

Detroit Lions -6.5 over Arizona Cardinals : Bet 8 units

Result : Detroit Lions 10 – 38 Arizona Cardinals

Its got to be tough for Arizona wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald ,widely regarded as one of the best in the game, to suit up week after week and play for a team with no quarterback. The Cardinals have the absolute worst quarterback situation in the league, possibly in history. Arizona quarterback Ryan Lindley’s incompetence at the position would be pathetic if the teams now number 1 quarterback John Skelton wasn’t even worse. Last weeks embarrassing 58-0 loss and Skelton’s throwing for just 74 yards and 4 interceptions is just a sample of the season as a whole. The Cardinals 9th loss in a row matches a franchis worst record set back 1944, and this week ther is no reprieve. Although the Lions themselves have underachieved this season, they are still filled with weapons that should completely overwhelm this totally inept Cardinals team. Detroit has played tough competitive games all year against good competition. The knock about them has no been talent, but their ability to finish games once they have leads. That will not be a problem today I assure you. The Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford connection to his unstoppable wide receiver Calvin Johnson even once in the end zone should prove enough to win this game. The Arizona offense while not being able to move the ball, proves to be beneficial for their opponents regularly giving away the ball on turnovers. Cardinals had 8 turnovers alone in last weeks game. This should prove enough to not only to be an easy point spread cover for Lions, but yet another embarrassing game for the Arizona Cardinals.

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