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Dec 22

Aramon’s NFL Picks Week 16 Part 1

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

Week 15 wasn’t very kind to us as we took a loss on some very odd games on Sunday, and had to endure that putrid display the Jets put on Monday night. All in all it wasn’t a total disaster and even though we took a small hit it was by no means devastating. So as we roll with the punches we look to a new week that looks to have huge potential. There may be a lot on the line this week as the teams that still have something to play for seem to be matched up well and are giving us some real money making opportunities. Although tonight’s game will not be our biggest wager of the weekend, its a good way to jump start our winning ways again.

A recap of Monday’s result and where we stand to date:

Sunday’s results : -5.0 units
10% house vig on losses : -0.5 units
Total to date : +44.3 units profit

For information purposes the betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of £1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide £1000 by 100 (=£10) and multiply that by 5 (=£50). A running total will be kept at the top of each pick article so that you can keep track of how well/poorly Aramon is doing this season.

Tonight’s Game as I see it:

When over/under bets are discussed this is in reference to the combined number of points scored by both teams. So in tonight’s pick, Atlanta Falcons vs Detroit Lions game, if their combined scores are over 50 points, you win this bet.

Atlanta Falcons vs Detroit Lions Take the over total of 50 points : Bet 6 units

Result : Atlanta Falcons 31 – 18 Detroit Lions

What we have here are two very talented teams, but with polar opposite seasons. Atlanta is just one win away from clinching home field throughout the NFC playoffs and has been playing consistently good all season. Detroit on the other hand is out of playoff contention, mired in a 6 game losing streak, and has been the ultimate under achiever all year. That being said, this game has the potential for a lot of scoring due to the talent on both of these teams regardless of their records. I fully expect Detroit, coming off an embarrassing loss to the Cardinals last week, to air it out all night long. Lion’s wide receiver Calvin Johnson is just 181 yards away from breaking Jerry Rice’s single season record for receiving yards. With no playoff chance this year that record looms large for this Lion team to salvage something out of an otherwise lost season. Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford has a big arm and should hook up with Johnson quite a bit which will either lead to Detroit scoring, or interceptions that should set up Atlanta scoring, either way this formula works good for our wager. As far as Atlanta, they should be able to score on this Detroit team at will. Falcons still have something to play for this week, and that makes this a very good game for points being scored. Quarterback Matt Ryan has his potent 1-2 punch with wide receivers Julio Jones and a much healthier this week Roddy White. This combination should light up the Lions secondary with very little problem. Even if Atlanta gets a big lead and takes their foot off the gas, that opens up the opportunity for late garbage time scoring from Detroit that will still be passing the ball no matter the score to try and get the receiving record for Calvin Johnson.

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