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Aramon’s NFL Picks Week 16 Part 2

Posted by THEPOGG on Dec 23, 2012

Ok, a very close but disappointing result in last night’s game has us in a little funk since last Sunday. Well today we have the cure for what ails us. Its Christmas come early today as we have incredibly strong picks today to push our profits up to a record season high. Not a lot of games today, just 3, but these are my cream of the crop that should stuff our stockings with cash just in time for the holidays.

A recap of Saturday’s result and where we stand to date:

Thursday’s results : -6.0 units
10% house vig on losses : -0.6 units
Total to date : +37.7 units profit

For information purposes the betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of £1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide £1000 by 100 (=£10) and multiply that by 5 (=£50). A running total will be kept at the top of each pick article so that you can keep track of how well/poorly Aramon is doing this season.

Today’s Games as I see it:

For those not familiar with sportsbetting when a number is shown next to a team’s name that number represents the handicap for an even money wager. So in our first pick of this week the Dallas Cowboys would have to beat the New Orleans Saints by more than 1 point for us to win this bet. So place this wager at any book that offers an even money wager with the Cowboys handicapped by 1 point or less.

When over/under bets are discussed this is in reference to the combined number of points scored by both teams. So in this weeks picks, in the San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks game, if their combined scores are over 40 points, you win this bet.

Dallas Cowboys -1 over New Orleans Saints : Bet 7 units

Result : Dallas Cowboy 31 – 34 New Orleans Saints

It just so happens that the Dallas Cowboys are playing their best football of the season right now. They have won 5 out of their last 6 to vault them into a 3 way tie for first in the NFC East division. These are must win games for the Cowboys, and they have been winning them. Their last 2 wins against tough defenses of the Bengals and Steelers may be their most impressive. In fact the improved play of Dallas quarterback Tony Romo, as evidenced by his 342 yards passing with 2 touchdowns against the Steelers, has led quite a resurgence to this Cowboy team. This comes as no surprise now that the Cowboys have running back Demarco Murray in the lineup again. Dallas has won the last 5 games in which he has played and are a much different and better team when they have a running threat. Now although the Saints are coming off a shocking 41-0 blowout win over Tampa Bay, they have otherwise struggled of late and pretty much blown their playoff chances in the process. Even with their shut out of the Buccaneers last week the Saints are still by far dead last in the league in total defense. That doesn’t bode well with them coming into Dallas to face a red hot Tony Romo led Dallas offense. The key to the Saints success has been the ability for their quarterback Drew Brees to pass the ball, that will be very hard to do against 2 of the premiere pass rushers in the game, Cowboy’s Demarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer. Even though Drew Brees has thrown 32 touchdowns this season, he has thrown 18 interceptions and the majority of them have come in the last 5 weeks. With Dallas playing so well and with a purpose as they fight for a playoff position, I cannot see the Saints overcoming the obstacles needed to take this game away from the Cowboys. The Dallas Cowboys need to make a statement today and I believe they will. However I do think the Saints have a bright future…….next year.

New York Giants -1 over Baltimore Ravens : Bet 9 units

Result : New York Giants 14 – 33 Baltimore Ravens

As I stated last week and will again, the Baltimore Ravens are a fraud this year and they have been a pleasure to see week in and week out given more credit than they are due. I mean this purely from a betting standpoint, as it is very nice to see such a small point spread in their favor as they really warrant so much more. The Ravens looked absolutely shot last week in their loss against the Broncos, and they haven’t looked good in 5 weeks. They are on a 3 game losing skid straight up as well as against the spread and things don’t look to get any better for them this week. Baltimore’s offensive line is a mess and can’t seem to handle any type of pass rush. That is bad news against this Giant defense led by Jason Pierre Paul and Justin Tuck who’s bread and butter is harassing the quarterback and disrupting the passing game. What really spells trouble for the Ravens is the fact that the Giants who have been banged up and struggling of late, are getting healthy this week. Giants get back a key offensive threat in running back Ahmad Bradshaw today, as well as major players in their defensive secondary in Prince Amukamara, and Kenny Phillips. This is exactly what the Giants needed in the nick of time to make their playoff run. The Giants control their own playoff destiny by winning their last 2 games, and the Giants seem to play their best with their backs against the wall. They haven’t lost a pressure game in quite a while, and will not be doing it against a Raven’s team that is totally off track. Even with the Giants struggles this year, blowout wins against the Packers and the Saints, shows they are a real threat when healthy. Baltimore just doesn’t match up well with their offensive line vs. the Giants defensive pass rush so I expect a long hard day for Raven quarterback Joe Flacco, one that may be filled with turnovers. On the other side, Baltimore’s banged up aging defense will be hard pressed to keep up with a very potent Giant offense led by Eli Manning. I don’t even think this game is close as the Giants right the ship this week and try to gain momentum for the playoffs.

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks Take the over total of 40 points : Bet 10 units

Result : San Francisco 49ers 13 – 42 Seattle Seahawks

It’s amazing that the total would be set so low for this game. It may have something to do with their first meeting this year that ended up a 13–6 49er win, but my have have things changed in the last couple of months. First off that first meeting that took place in week 7 had Alex Smith as the 49er’s starting quarterback. While he has been very good and successful for the them, his replacement Colin Kaepernick has been nothing short of dynamic. With Kaepernick at the helm, the 49ers have gone over the total 5 out of their last 6 games. With his blend of running, passing, and overall poise beyond his years in the pocket, this young Quarterback has proven they can now light up the scoreboard and no longer need to play game managing offense to back up their defense. San Francisco’s offense is now every bit a key to their success as their defense has been and it has been fun to watch. Speaking of fun to watch, the transformation of the Seahawks has been nothing short of incredible. As is the case with the 49ers, this Seattle team is not led by the same quarterback from week 7. Yes it is the same person in Russell Wilson, but week 16 Russell Wilson is by far, more mature, experienced, and leaps and bounds ahead of the week 7 version. The first meeting between these 2 teams saw Wilson have his worst game of the year throwing just 122 yards. In his last 6 games however, Russell Wilson has thrown 11 touchdowns with only 1 interception. He is also backed by his unstoppable force of a running back Marshawn Lynch who has 8 100 yard rushing games this year, including 103 against the 49ers in their first meeting. Seattle has scored an amazing 108 points in their last 2 games, and really seem to be peaking at the right time. 49ers scored 41 last week in their victory against the Patriots. While both teams have outstanding defenses, they both have the kind of offenses that cannot be completely held down due to having such mobile quarterbacks. This total of 40 is a testament to what these teams have built on their reputation for defense. By the 3rd quarter as the score sails over the total, that will be a testament to their offense.

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