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Aramon’s NFL Picks Week 8 part 2

Posted by THEPOGG on Oct 28, 2012

Well Thursday night went well. As expected Tampa Bay performed well and led us to an an easy win. Although we missed on our lesser play of picking the under for this same game, we were right on with our analysis of the running game. A few Minnesota turnovers turned into points leading to the loss, but the more valuable play allowed the night to be a nice overall win. Todays games look very good and should continue our upward trend.

So lets recap last week and where we stand to date:

Thursday Night’s results : +4 units
10% house vig on losses : -0.3 units
Total to date : -12.9 deficit

For information purposes the betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of £1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide £1000 by 100 (=£10) and multiply that by 5 (=£50). A running total will be kept at the top of each pick article so that you can keep track of how well/poorly Aramon is doing this season.

This weeks picks as I see it:

For those not familiar with sportsbetting when a number is shown next to a team’s name that number represents the handicap for an even money wager. So in our first pick of this week the Chicago Bears would have to beat the Carolina Panthers by 8.5 points or more – in otherwords 9 point. So place this wager at any book offer an even money wager with Chicago handicapped by 8.5 points or less.

When over/under bets are discussed this is in reference to the combined number of points scored by both teams. So in this weeks picks the New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys, if their combined scores are over 48 points, you win this bet.

Chicago Bears -8.5 over Carolina Panthers : Bet 5 units

Result : Chicago Bears 23 – 22 Carolina Panthers

The reasoning in this game is very simple. The Panthers are 2nd in the NFC in giveaways (turnovers). While the Bears are first in takeaways(making and recovering turnovers). This is a bad combination and should spell a very bad day at the office for the Panthers. As well as Panther quarterback Cam Newton while being an outstanding talent with a sensational rookie year, has seemed to regress slightly in year 2 and is prone to mistakes and has shown a lack of maturity. Veteran Bear defense gets fat today feeding off the young quarterbacks mistakes. I like the Bears in this one by double digits.

Detroit Lions -2.5 over Seattle Seahawks : Bet 5 units

Result : Detroit Lions 28 – 24 Seattle Seahawks

While the Lions are not as good as predicted this year, they should handily beat the Seahawks team that is horrible on the road. Seahawks quarterback Russel Wilson has 6 touchdowns and 0 interceptions at home where they have not lost a game this year. Compare that to 2 touchdowns and 7 interceptions on the road where their record is just 1-3. Seahawks have duped many bettors by playing so well at home they become a favorite pick, but do not be fooled, they are no road warrior and will get beaten by a Lions team playing at home looking to explode. If Lions keep turnovers to a minimum against a Seattle defense that also struggles on the road, this game won’t be close.

New York Giants -1.5 over Dallas Cowboys : Bet 6 units

Result : New York Giants 29 – 24 Dallas Cowboys

These 2 teams faced off in week 1 with Dallas winning handily but a lot has changed in the weeks since. The Giants have the toughest schedule in the NFL, yet still seem to be marching through to another playoff run. In week 1 Dallas running back Demarco Murray ran roughshod over the Giants defense, well he’s out with injury this week, and Felix Jones, Dallas’ other running back is playing hurt as well. Also worth mentioning is a key injury to the Dallas defense in Sean Lee, quite possibly their best player on the defensive side of the ball. While Eli Manning is in top mid season form and his star young wide receiver Victor Cruz is well. A far cry from the 4 dropped passes he had in the first meeting that impacted the game negatively for the Giants. Also a point to be noted, Dallas won last week, but has not won back to back games in their last 11 games.

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys Take the over total of 48 : Bet 5 units

Result : New York Giants 29 – 24 Dallas Cowboys

Since the Cowboys have opened their new stadium the least these 2 teams have scored there has been 64 points. With Giant quarterback Eli Manning lighting up scoreboards this year and putting up guady yards totals look for the Giants to score often, especially with a compromised Dallas pass rush. Also with the injuries in the Dallas running game look for heavy doses of passing from Dallas quarterback Tony Romo to his talented receiving corp. I think this will be a virtual track meet out there today. I believe the Giants will out last the Cowboys, but not before the scoreboard starts smoking.

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