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Aramon’s NFL Picks Week 9 Part 1

Posted by THEPOGG on Nov 01, 2012

Well, a whiff on the Monday night matchup slowed the train slightly, but we still remain quite consistent of late. Not that big of an issue as we did grade it a viable bet, but on the lower end of our strength of play betting ramp. Tonights game stands to correct Monday’s loss.

So lets recap last week and where we stand to date:

Monday Night’s results : -3 units
10% house vig on losses : -0.3 units
Total to date : -5.7 deficit

For information purposes the betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of £1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide £1000 by 100 (=£10) and multiply that by 5 (=£50). A running total will be kept at the top of each pick article so that you can keep track of how well/poorly Aramon is doing this season.

Week 9 Thursday night pick as I see it:

When over/under bets are discussed this is in reference to the combined number of points scored by both teams. So in this weeks picks the Kansas City Chiefs vs San Diego chargers, if their combined scores are under 41 points (i.e. 41 points or less), you win this bet.

Kansas City Chiefs vs San Diego Chargers take the under total of 41.5 : Bet 5 units

Result : Kansas City Chiefts 13 – 31 San Diego Chargers

There is a lot here that points this game in the low scoring direction. Both teams have been anemic and playing quite poorly. The Chargers have lost their last 3 games and haven’t scored a touchdown in the last 6 quarters. Granted last week they were playing the Browns in high winds and rain, but since their meltdown in the second half against the Broncos 3 weeks ago they haven’t been the same. Quarterback Phillip Rivers and running back Ryan Matthews have been wildly inconsistent leading what used to be a potent offense, to just a 25th in the league ranking for offense. The bow to wrap up this under pick is the Kansas City Chiefs being probably the worst team in the NFL so far. They are on pace for a record number of turnovers this year and are tops in the league in giveaways (lost fumbles and interceptions). Even though they have led the league in average yards per game rushing – 155, last week Chiefs star running back Jamaal Charles was held to just 4 yards on 5 carries. A direct result in the fact teams can now stack the line knowing the Chiefs cannot beat them with the pass. Lots of run attempts will however eat lots of clock keeping the score down.

Final note: This series has produced quite a few unders going 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Chiefs have also gone under in 10 of last 11 AFC west games. Bottomline is we can’t trust either offense, expect them to be mediocre and flat.

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