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Oct 29

Aramon’s NFL Picks Week 8 Part 3

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

Seems like we are hitting stride mid season which is exactly the way we like it. Yesterday was close to perfect, if only the Bears could have awoke from hibernation just a little earlier. Exciting games for sure, Giants became the cardiac kids there at the end, but as predicted, they outlasted the freethrowing Tony Romo led Cowboys. Tonights game looks very playable for wagering despite what many may think.

So lets recap last week and where we stand to date:

Sunday Night’s results : +11 units
10% house vig on losses : -0.5 units
Total to date : -2.4 deficit

For information purposes the betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of £1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide £1000 by 100 (=£10) and multiply that by 5 (=£50). A running total will be kept at the top of each pick article so that you can keep track of how well/poorly Aramon is doing this season.

Monday Night Bonus Pick as I see it:

For those not familiar with sportsbetting when a number is shown next to a team’s name that number represents the handicap for an even money wager. So in our first pick of this week the Arizona Cardinals could lose by up to 7 points and you’d still win this bet. So place this wager at any book offer an even money wager with Arizona +7 points or more.

Arizona Cardinals +7 over San Francisco 49ers : Bet 3 units

Result : Arizona Cardinals 3 – 24 San Francisco 49ers

This on the surface seems to be a mismatch and that is what the linesmakers would like you to believe. Cardinals have been very good at home this year going 3-1 with the only loss being a close overtime loss to the Bills 19-16. Laying 7 points to a home underdog is a huge number. Combine that with the fact that both teams have stout defenses with offenses that have been anemic of late. 49ers scoring just a total of 16 points combined in their last 2 games, while Cardinals have been averaging just 11. What you’ve got here is a low scoring game, which gives a full touchdown point spread a much higher value. Most including myself believe 49ers to be one of the elite teams in the NFC, while Cardinals are decent but not exactly in the same class. But this is about matchups, and theses divisonal matchups are always hard fought. Cardinals actually taking the last meeting between the two in Arizona 21-19 last December. 49ers with 11 days off in between games will be rested, but may also be flat. I believe they win, but the pointspread is too big to overcome. This should stay close.

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