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Nov 04

Aramon’s NFL Picks Week 9 part 2

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

All I can say about Thursday nights game is…….wow. If you had gone to sleep halfway through the 4th quarter you would have went to bed knowing we had an easy win with the under. What a surprise to wake up and find out that totally inept Kansa City gave up 2 touchdowns on turnovers in 2 minutes! To add to the insult, the Chargers give up a garbage time touchdown to the Chiefs because they were so far ahead that lead to the under pick being a loser. What a fluke! Good thing about those however, as long as you have sound analysis, it happens both ways, ala Cowboys touchdown taken away in the last seconds against the Giants. So as much as it hurts to watch such nonsense, we need to be fair and realize it when it goes our way as well.

No matter, this weeks games are filled with opportunities. I have 5 games I really like. I need to temper down the excitement a bit because due to all the games I feel strongly about, and would love to throw some max bets on, we need to stay within bankroll betting parameters. So this week, as I feel strongly about all these picks, we will keep all bets mid level and fairly even to guard against overbetting. Bottomline is still, if this week goes the way I believe it to, we win big!

A recap of Thursday’s pick and where we stand to date:

Thursday Night’s results : -5 units
10% house vig on losses : -0.5 units
Total to date : -11.2 deficit

For information purposes the betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of £1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide £1000 by 100 (=£10) and multiply that by 5 (=£50). A running total will be kept at the top of each pick article so that you can keep track of how well/poorly Aramon is doing this season.

This weeks picks as I see it:

For those not familiar with sportsbetting when a number is shown next to a team’s name that number represents the handicap for an even money wager. So in our first pick of this week the Chicago Bears would have to beat the Tennessee Titans by 3.5 points or more (i.e. at least 4 points) for us to win this bet so you should place this bet at any book offering an even money bet where the Chicago Bears are handicapped by no more than 3.5 points.

Chicago Bears -3.5 over Tennessee Titans : Bet 5 units

Result : Chicago Bears 51 – 20 Tenessee Titans

Although the Bears are having a stellar season, they have disappointed us in covering the spread in their wins. Last week being evidence of that. But this is a new week and a great matchup for Chicago. Last week the Bears struggled to a win against a Carolina Panther team that might be better than many originally thought. However this Sunday is different you can bet, (and we are) that Bears quarterback Jay Cutler and his offensive line come out firing and ready to go. The Titans don’t have an answer for Bears wide receiver Brandon Marshall, running back Matt Forte,or even 1st down machine Earl Bennett. On the other side of the ball, Bears ferocious defense should shut down the Titans offensive line and bottle up their star running back Chris Johnson. To put this in perspective, the Titans offensive only hung 13 points on an awful Colt s defense. I can see them doing nothing against a defense as stout as Chicago’s.

Houston Texans -10 over Buffalo Bills : Bet 6 units

Result : Houston Texans 21 – 9 Buffalo Bills

Don’t be scared of the big pointspread here. I can see the Texans easily hanging a good 40 points against Buffalo here. The Bills are just not equipped to stop the Texans on the ground or the air. I look for this to be an old fashioned beatdown. I believe Texan running back Arian Foster is drooling waiting for this game, and look for Houston quarterback Matt Schaub to light up the scoreboard early and often. The one chance Buffalo would have is if they get their running game going, but against the Houston #3 ranked defense, that chance is slim. Without a running game present, watch for Bills quarterback Fitzpatrick to have a rough day at the office. Houston in a rout.

Denver Broncos -3.5 over Cinncinati Bengals : Bet 5 units

Result : Denver Broncos 31 – 23 Cinncinati Bengals

Quarterback Peyton Manning has never lost a game to the Bengals, and it will not start this week. The only way the Bengals can win this game is to outscore and outpass the league MVP candidate Manning……not gonna happen. Broncos offensive line has looked better of late and has showed in Peyton Manning’s absolute dominance over his competition in past weeks. Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton has been good, as well as having the ultra talented wide receiver A.J. Green, but its not even close to match up to what this Bronco team has been accomplishing in the past 5 weeks. This Bronco team is rolling, and given their schedule just may run the table this year. With Peyton getting stronger every week, and really gelling with his new team now, this is a bad time for a mediocre team like Cinncinati to be running into them.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1 over Oakland Raiders : Bet 5 units

Result : Tampa Bay Buccaneers 42 – 32 Oakland Raiders

Tampa’s young quarterback Josh Freeman is on fire the last 3 weeks realizing the star potential he once flashed. He’s thrown for 1,010 yards, 9 touchdowns, and only 1 interception in the past 3 games. Adding to that, the Bucs, rookie running back Doug Martin is leading a surging running game that is making this Tampa offense one to watch week in and week out. The Raiders who have looked better of late, seem to me more of an anamoly as their wins are coming in from the worst teams in the league in the Jaguars and Chiefs. I can’t see this game being that competitive as Tampa has a solid front 7 on defense that should not get beaten by Raiders top running back Darren McFadden, nor should it have trouble disrupting an often mistake prone quarterback in Carson Palmer. Raiders won’t be able to stifle this Tampa Bay offense, nor score heavily against their defense. Bad matchup for Oakland.

Seattle Seahawks -4 over Minnesota Vikings : Bet 5 units

Result : Seattle Seahawks 30 – 20 Minnesota Vikings

At first glance if one doesn’t follow these games that close this may look like one too close to call. I mean with Vikings running back Adrian Peterson playing as great as ever, leading the league in rushing, and quarteback Christian Ponder having some serious passing weapons and playing a good role as being an effecient game manager, it seems like it would not pay to bet on a mid level team such as Seattle. The fact is, Seattle does not lose at home. They are a different team there, 3-0 this year with 4-0 coming up. Looking at Seattle they are competitive in even their losses so they are a decent team going up against a team that is not elite by any stretch. But at home Seattle is very, very good. Seahawk quarteback Russel Wilson is damn near perfect there, while running back Marshawn Lynch has been in “beast mode”, and going up a Viking team that has been weak agaist the run lately, this is a great matchup for Seattle. Also look for the vaunted pass rush of Seattle, along with the loudest crowd in the NFL in the Seattle fans, to pressure the young quarterback Christian Ponder into poor decisions. Seattle is the toughest place to play on the road in the NFL. An elite team may overcome this, but as I said earlier, the Vikings are not that team.

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