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Nov 02

Aramon’s NFL Picks: Week 9 (Sunday)

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

NFL

Wow….thats all I can say about last week. That was the single worst losing week we have experienced in 3 seasons. It was just a perfect storm of bad luck and circumstance that did us in. The Lions never showed up for the first half of their game, yet looked exactly as predicted the 2nd half….just too late. The Steelers Ben Roethlisberger just happened to have his best game as a professional last week throwing for over 500 yards and 6 TD’s….that is a fluke and unpredictable. And the Eagles outplayed the Cardinals as expected in every statistical category except one…the score! Well if there is a silver lining to our rather large deficit, its that it falls right in the middle of the season and we have plenty of opportunity to right the ship. This week sees us getting a very good chance at the comeback we need. Four strong plays that will right this ship and verify my unwavering confidence that we got this under control.

Sundays’s results : -34.1 units
Total to date : -49.0 units

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Washington Redskins pick em(0) over Minnesota Vikings : Bet 7 units

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Result:

This is a case in which I think the far better team is not getting the respect due to them. The Redskins while only ringing a 3-5 record into Minnesota, are coming off a very spirited and compelling win over the Cowboys last week. That game saw the Redskins finally get their very potent running game back with Alfred Morris and their defense actually played extremely well against one of the best offenses in the league in Dallas. This week also see’s the return of Washingtons star QB RGIII. This should give this Redskin team a lift in not only the passing game but in Griffin’s ability to convert 3rd downs and keep plays alive with his running ability. The Vikings themselves are coming off a win against the Buccaneers and rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater seems to be coming along, but without start RB Adrian Peterson in the lineup anymore, this Vikings team has not been built to sustain any consistency. The past 3 years the Redskins have entered the 2nd half of the season with a losing record only to make valiant season ending pushes for the playoffs. I believe Washington may be a team to watch this second half, especially if they can keep RGIII healthy. And I believe it starts today.

New England Patriots/Denver Broncos take the over total 54 : Bet 8 units

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Result:

Well what a treat this game should be. Two of the top teams in the AFC square off, with 2 of the best all time QB’s in the Broncos Peyton Manning and the Patriots Tom Brady going head to head. This game comes at the right time because the Patriots seemed to have found that good offensive groove that they need to be successful due largely to the good health of Tight End Rob Gronkowski. Last week saw the Patriots explode with 53 points and look very much like what can be expected from a Tom Brady led team. The Broncos on the other hand have looked great all season and all Peyton Manning is doing is leading his Bronco high powered offense with another MVP caliber season. Even though both teams have an improved defense, especially in the secondary, the match ups still favor a scoring friendly game. Last November when these 2 teams met the score ended up 34-31, I expect at least similar numbers. The Patriots trend toward over totals favor the month of November where they have been 15-5 to the over in their last 20 games. The Broncos subsequently in their last 21 games have been 16-4-1 while playing on FieldTurf such as they are playing today. It should be fast track today with lots of scoring.

Philadelphia Eagles -1.5 over Houston Texans : Bet 5 units

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Result:

I really expect the Eagles to rebound big here after a very tough loss last week to Arizona. While the Eagles played well enough to win that game last week they gave up sporadic big plays including the long TD pass that ended up beating them. There is far less of a threat of the Texans opening up any real big plays this week, and even with one of the best defensive players in the game in J.J. Watt, this Houston 21st ranked defense should get carved up putting the Texan offense in a position to play from behind. If history is any indication of how this game will go, the Texans chances would be dismal as they have an 0-3 record ATS vs the Eagles. What makes matters worse is that the Texans this season are 0-4 as the underdog. Having not won a game against the better teams has been a real problem for the Texans, and getting an Eagles team hungry for a big rebound win after last week looks to be more than this Houston team will be able to handle. The Eagles fast paced offense should be able to jump out to an early lead, and while the Texans are capable of scoring points, they just can’t match Philly’s firepower. I feel both teams may have moments in this game, but the Eagles will have far more of them.

Philadelphia Eagles/Houston Texans take the over total 48.5 : Bet 4 units

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Result:

While I do think the Eagles will win this game, and by the end fairly comfortably, I do think the Texans have the ability to score a bit themselves making this a prime game for an over total. Houston over their last 3 games have scored 30, 23, and 28 points respectively. That’s an average of 27 points, which is a likely scenario in this game especially if the Eagles jump out early and play a soft prevent defense towards the end of the game. I cannot see the Eagles scoring under 30 points in this game and are likely to surpass that by at least another score. In that case I believe if the Texans can just score around half of what they’ve been averaging over the last 3 games, then this one hits the over fairly easily. If the Philly offensive line can keep Houston’s superstar defensive end J.J. Watt at least somewhat away from Eagles QB Nick Foles, this Eagles offense is going to churn up this otherwise weak Houston defense. I also expect Philly’s RB LeSean McCoy to continue his effective running that he has had over his last 3 games gaining 313 over that span. This game has all the makings of a lot of points, a great offense looking to rebound going against a weak defense, as well as the Eagles quick scoring will leave the Texans with the ball alot. This one should be settled before the 4th quarter.

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