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Aug 07

Aramon’s NFL Pre Season Betting Theory: Week 1

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

Ok here we are with the first pre season game under our belt and the underdog theory stands at 1-0. The Dallas Cowboys beat the Miami Dolphins in what is called the Hall Of Fame Game played annually the weekend of NFL Hall Of Fame inductions. According to Pinnacle sports book the Cowboys went off as a +2.5 point underdog. The Cowboys won the game outright 24-20 so it was of course an easy cover. So what if anything can we gather from this game.

First off the Cowboys while being the home team, were really not getting any home field advantage as the game was played at a neutral site at Fawcett Stadium in Canton, Ohio, the home of the NFL Hall Of Fame. So this first game doesn’t give all that much information into the points given for home field advantage. Historically, home field is worth +3 off the top to the home team in regular season games, I would like to eventually see what the pre season worth may be. I would think home team pre season underdogs may hold even more advantage in exhibition games as the actual play on the field has much less impact on the results and final outcome. I am curious the weight a home team point advantage has if my theory is correct that pre season games are played as close to neutral as can be possible in a human contest. However, as I said this game does not offer that insight as there was only a home team in name only.

Now I do not want to get into the game analysis too much as that is not what my study into the pre season is about. But just on the surface it seems the money moved towards the Cowboys simply because their starting quarterback Tony Romo was not scheduled to play in the game. There may be other factors at play, but that’s where the square money seemed to push the line. I find that fascinating as Miami’s Starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill only threw 5 passes and played so little as to not be a factor almost as much as a non playing Tony Romo. This is one of my points of interest in these preseason games, not to examine injuries or players stats, but to exploit the mindset of the common gambler moving the lines on team bias and non realistic player expectations.

So not really too much to tell in this first preseason game, but nevertheless it’s a tic on the side I was hoping for. This weekend holds a full slate of games to round out the week 1 of NFL preseason, so hopefully it we may have quite a bit more data to dive into by the end of it. So for now I’ll just keep a running tab on the results.

Week 1 NFL Pre Season: (Home Team Underlined)
Line Score

Prediction Result
Dallas Cowboys +2.5 Miami Dolphins Cowboys 24 Dolphins 20 Win

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