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Aramon’s NFL Preseason Betting Theory: Week 1 (cont. 8-8-13)

Posted by THEPOGG on Aug 08, 2013

So week 1 of the NFL preseason continues tonight with 6 more games. We have started off 1-0 this preseason, but there is still much more to go. I will post the lines according to Pinnacle Sports even though with this theory I am exploring, I will be taking only underdogs. Here are tonight’s lines with all the underdogs listed first in each match up with home teams in parentheses:

  • Baltimore Ravens +3 (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
  • Redskins +3 (Tennessee Titans)
  • St. Louis Rams +3.5 (Cleveland Browns)
  • Cincinnati Bengals +2.5 (Atlanta Falcons)
  • Denver Broncos +3 (San Francisco 49ers)
  • (San Diego Chargers) +2.5 Seattle Seahawks

Now the first thing that stands out to me with these lines is this, all but the Chargers are home team favorites. Second thing is, 5 out of the 6 games lines are within 3 points with the other being slightly larger at 3.5. It seems as if the lines makers are basically just giving the home teams the approximate customary 3 point edge for home field advantage. This may be due to the fact these are just the 1st games of the preseason and even the rabid fan sports bettor is waiting to see their team at least once before pulling the trigger on wager. We’ll have to see how this plays out. However, with the Chargers getting +2.5 points that really equates to the line thinking the Seahawks are about 5.5 points better because they are erasing the Chargers usual 3 point home advantage and giving and additional 2.5 points to them. This difference being a bit wider may show some value. Even though I believe this regular sesaon the Seahawks should be the far superior team, that team will not be on the field more than a few series, or just a few minutes. This pick may have value, but lets wait and see. I will comment after the games to see if anything significant stands out. Just a reminder, I am not in anyway offering any picks in these games, this is just some data gathering for a possible future endeavor.

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