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Aug 17

Aramon’s NFL Preseason Betting Theory: Week 2 (cont. 8-17-13)

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

So far week 2 of this NFL preseason has been a tough one for our premise of underdog betting these exhibition games. Last night saw us go 1-3 in taking the underdogs, as well as 2 out of 4 for the over in the game totals. The silver lining here is, as poor as the results have been so far this week, we are still ahead of the game as far as the underdog record, as well as picking the over’s. We also still have 8 more games left here in week 2 for the results to swing back to where I think they belong. I’m going to list all of the games for the rest of the week now as most of them take place today, with just 1 on Sunday and 1 on Monday. If for some reason the lines on the 2 games not being played today change dramatically before they are played, I will change the line here before each game to reflect the game time bet spread. But seeing they are both laying around 1 to 1.5 I don’t expect any drastic changes. I will hold any real commentary on the rest of the games for this week until I do my week 2 wrap up. Then I will have a much better gauge on all the stats and results of the week. I will say however, even though this week started a little slow for the underdogs, I really like the odds for them coming up in the next 8 games to be played out for week 2. We shall see, I’ll be back Tuesday with all my thoughts and relevant stats on week 2 and the state of this preseason betting theory. The lines and game totals used are from Pinnacle Sports, and as always the underdogs will be listed first with the home team in parentheses.

  • Dallas Cowboys +3.5 (Arizona Cardinals) 41
  • Tennessee Titans +2.5 (Cincinnati Bengals) 41
  • Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 (New York Jets) 38.5
  • Miami Dolphins +3.5 (Houston Texans) 41
  • Green Bay Packers +4.5 (St. Louis Rams) 41
  • Denver Broncos +5 (Seattle Seahawks) 41
  • Indianapolis Colts +1.5 (New York Giants) 40.5
  • Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 (Washington Redskins) 39 (changed line from +1 to +2.5 and over from 38 to 39 as that was what it jumped to day of game)

Up to date results:

Week 2 so far: Underdogs won 3 lost 5

Week 2 so far : Game totals over 4 out of 8

Year to date Underdogs record: 14-11

Year to date Underdogs Winning percentage: 56%

Year to date game totals over: 16 out of 25

Year to date game total over percentage: 61%

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