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Aramon’s NFL Preseason Betting Theory: Week 3

Posted by THEPOGG on Aug 22, 2013

A quick recap of week 2’s results show the underdogs took a big hit and lost the week 5-11. The over totals had a slight dip too at 7-8-1. What I take away from week 2 is that the starters generally played much more than they did week 1, many as much as a whole half in this second week of preseason. That seemed to have a bit more impact on the games outcomes in this small sample size. This is one reason why I wanted to remove this week 3 from my preseason betting theory as I stated in my introduction weeks ago in referencing this very premise. Week 3 will see the bulk of all teams starters play a majority of the game as opposed to previous weeks. Starters should be playing into the 3rd quarter which I feel will greatly skew the idea of what I believe to be an underdog betting bias for the NFL preseason games. So this week will be off the board, for as even if the underdogs do pull out wins this week, I believe the in game play and match ups of the starters will have a greater effect than would just a neutral playing field of non starters getting handicapped points in their favor. The tendency for some this week may be to actually try and handicap games based on the normal system of in game analysis and match up exploitation as well as misplaced line movement. Well I will not fall into that trap. Regardless of how much more the first teams may be on the field this week, there are still way too many intangible factors that I find to volatile to predict in a preseason atmosphere.

What I will say however, week 3 can go a long way in shaping some thoughts and gathering data for this upcoming regular season. This is actually the top week of the preseason to actually see full 1st team squads at full speed. For a handicapper this is by far the most important week before the regular season actually starts. As much as I have paid attention to the games this preseason closer than ever before, this weeks games is where the true lines of the first week of the regular season will begin to form. It will be off this weeks play where the bulk of information will be sifted through as far as the offenses, defenses, quarterbacks, the other “skill” positions, and significant personnel injuries. This is a week to be sharp, because week 4, the last week of preseason, will show you next to nothing. Week 4 equates to week 1 in as how little the starters will be playing. As a matter of fact, I believe week 4 has great potential in our underdog betting theory. Preseason week 1 was good, but it is a slow week as its just the beginning and a lot of those wagering are still hesitant. I believe that the final week of the preseason games has the potential to be the most skewed set of bet spreads of the 4 preseason games. Not only will their be virtually no first team play, but the wagering public will be working into a frenzy with the regular season so close, as well as the average bettor will falsely believe in the past 3 weeks of games as reliable wagering information. I can’t wait for week 4, the whole thought of it I find very intriguing. So nothing on the line this week as far as the preseason betting theory, but massive amounts for me in preparing for the regular season in a couple of weeks.

Up to date results:

Week 2 : Underdogs won 5 lost 11

Week 2 so far : Game totals over 7 out of 15 with 1 push (tie)

Year to date Underdogs record: 19-22

Year to date Underdogs Winning percentage: 46.3%

Year to date game totals over: 23 out of 40 with 1 push (tie)

Year to date game total over percentage: 57.5%

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