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Aramon’s NFL Preseason Betting Theory: Week 4

Posted by THEPOGG on Aug 29, 2013

Well this is it, the last week of the NFL preseason. So far the betting theory I have put forth hasn’t been as strong as I suspected it might be, however I believe there is a chance I may have discovered something to look at further. Week 1 went pretty much as I thought it might. Week 2 did not, but I believe the reason is now pretty evident to me why. In the first week of preseason the teams are all theoretical in how they are evaluated. There is nothing but the previous seasons data as well as the new player’s college resumes to get a line on the teams. That along with the fact the real talent, the first string starters play so little they have almost no effect on the games outcome. As I surmised at the outset, that should bode well for the underdogs as there is no real statistical on field data that should allow any team a real handicap. However, in game 2 of the preseason, the starters played much more than I realized, playing in many instances half the game. This along with a slight bit of on field data from week 1 may allow for slightly more accurate lines making. Week 3’s preseason is totally off the table for my preseason betting theory as the 1st string plays the bulk of the game, usually into the 3rd quarter, and greatly influences the game lines far more towards regular season handicapping. Now the last week of the preseason, this week, looks to me to be very much in line with week 1 type results. In this last preseason game the starters barely touch the field. They have only 1 week before the real season starts and no coach is risking an injury to any of his players that he feels he needs to start the season with. These games are filled with all the lower string players trying to make the final cut, and many players that already know they won’t. It may be some spirited contests, but not high level play, and certainly not a slate of games to be handicapped in the conventional sense. I believe that any of the teams that are underdogs this week, will have nearly as good as shot as winning the game outright as their competition, and with getting the points, easily swinging the pendulum to an underdog wager.

We shall see. As repeated many times, this is just a theory not a prediction. A lot still remains to be seen. But as you will soon see in the upcoming weeks, there are many underdogs tonight that may never be the whole regular season. These lines definitely a representation of the true talent of each team. The good thing this week is all the week 4 preseason games are being played today, so we won’t have to wait long for results. So here are tonight’s week 4 NFL preseason games, the last before we take on the real season and begin our true handicapping/wagering. The lines and game totals used are from Pinnacle Sports, and as always the underdogs will be listed first with the home team in parentheses.

  • (New york Jets) +5 Philadelphia Eagles 39.5
  • Indianapolis Colts +3.5 (Cincinnati Bengals) 38
  • (Buffalo Bills) +4 Detroit Lions 37.5
  • (Atlanta Falcons) +2.5 Jacksonville Jaguars 40
  • Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 (Carolina Panthers) 36.5
  • (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) +1 Washington Redskins 37.5
  • New Orleans Saints +5.5 (Miami Dolphins) 36
  • New York Giants +1 (New England Patriots) 37.5
  • (Minnesota Vikings) +4.5 Tennessee Titans 39
  • Baltimore Ravens +6.5 (St. Louis Rams) 39.5
  • (Chicago Bears) +1.5 Cleveland Browns 39.5
  • Green Bay Packers +4.5 (Kansas City Chiefs) 36.5
  • (Dallas Cowboys +4.5 Houston Texans 37.5
  • (Denver Broncos +1 Arizona Cardinals 38.5
  • San Fracisco 49ers +1 (San Diego Chargers) 38.5
  • Oakland Raiders +7 (Seattle Seahawks) 37

Up to date results:

Week 2 : Underdogs won 5 lost 11

Week 2 so far : Game totals over 7 out of 15 with 1 push (tie)

Year to date Underdogs record: 19-22

Year to date Underdogs Winning percentage: 46.3%

Year to date game totals over: 23 out of 40 with 1 push (tie)

Year to date game total over percentage: 57.5%

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