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Jan 06

Aramon’s NFL Wilcard Playoff Picks Part 2

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

Yesterday’s playoff games got our feet wet in this post season and saw us pull a small profit for the day. That’s fine with me, any win is a good win and they all add on to our season total profit which gets healthier with every win. Today looks even better. I think we stand to really get healthy today and take advantage of some really nice playoff match ups. This is a time to enjoy some good football and even better, some real chances to make some money. I like what we have in front of us today, so let the games begin!

A recap of last Saturday’s result and where we stand to date:

Saturday’s results : +1.6 units
10% house vig on losses : -0.4 units
Total to date : +26.6 units profit

For information purposes the betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of £1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide £1000 by 100 (=£10) and multiply that by 5 (=£50). A running total will be kept at the top of each pick article so that you can keep track of how well/poorly Aramon is doing this season.

Today’s Games as I see it:

For those not familiar with sportsbetting when a number is shown next to a team’s name that number represents the handicap for an even money wager. So in our first pick of this week the Baltimore Ravens would have to beat the Indiananoplis Colts by more than 7 points for us to lose this bet. So place this wager at any book that offers an even money wager with the Ravens handicapped by 7 points or more.

Indianapolis Colts +7 over Baltimore Ravens : Bet 5 units

Result : Indainapolis Colts 9 – 24 Baltimore Ravens

All year I have been saying how I don’t really buy into this Ravens team, and today I will say it again, just not as loudly. Baltimore is lucky to even be in the playoffs based on how they have played their last 5 games, but they are here, and a little healthier. Which is why I won’t pile on them too bad. This week they get their emotional, defensive, as well as team leader back in future hall of famer Ray Lewis. He brings an extra emotional lift to the team as he announced that he will be retiring after this season, so that will add a little more fire to this Ravens team to get it done. All this being said, that’s just not enough to overcome these upstart Colts with their budding superstar quarterback Andrew Luck, and the 7 points they have generously been given. And if you want to talk about emotional lifts, Colts Head Coach Chuck Pagano will be on the sidelines for only the second time this year as he comes back from his battle with Leukemia. “Chuckstrong” has been Indianapolis’s battle cry all year long as these underdog Colts have battled all season long in tribute to their ailing coach. Well he’s going to be there alongside them today on the field and you better believe these Colts will show up for this fight. Emotions aside, Coach Pagano brings a real edge with him as well as he was once the defensive coordinater for a year for the Ravens, as well as being part of the staff for 4 years. He knows what makes Baltimore tick and how to beat them. Being armed with a quarterback like Andrew Luck, and wide receivers Reggie Wayne and T.Y. Hilton expect a well formed game plan against this Baltimore defense. The Colts have played low scoring close games on the road all year and I expect more of the same today. The Ravens aside from the beating they laid on the Giants, have struggled mightily on offense the whole second half of the season. They may be able to run the ball a bit against the Colts with their premier running back Ray Rice, but to actually beat the Colts and cover a full touchdown spread they are going to need to be able to pass the ball effectively all game. I don’t think Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco will overmatch what Indianapolis’s Andrew Luck can do. The Colt’s Andrew Luck while prone to mistakes from pushing too hard, has cut down on them as of late and has been hugely impressive in leading his team to 7 4th quarter comebacks this year. He has ice in his veins as he is mature way beyond his years and never lets a mishap effect his next drive. I expect this to be a close game, but one that is very winnable for a Colts team as I expect them to be in this game to the end. If its close going into the 4th quarter, watch for the Colts to take it.

Seattle Seahawks -3 over Washington Redskins : Bet 10 units

Result : Seattle Seahawks 24 – 14 Washington Redskins

I’ve been anxiously awaiting this game all week. It pits two of the best rookie quarterbacks in the league against each other in Seahawks Russell Wilson vs. Redskins Robert Griffin III (RGIII). This would be a great matchup if RGIII were completely healthy as he is an absolute phenom when he his totally mobile. Well he’s not, and his performance has shown that as he has been hindered by a knee injury since he suffered it Dec. 9th. He has still been effective and he really showed his grit against the Cowboys last week in their do or die game to get in the playoffs. But this Seattle defense is not the Cowboys defense, this squad is dangerous, and man can they hit and rush the quarterback. They have one of the best pass rushes in the league led by Chris Clemons with 11.5 sacks, and match that up with one of the top covering secondaries in the league and probably the hardest hitting cornerbacks in the NFL. I can’t see Washington really being able to open up anything in the passing game without getting smacked around or turning the ball over a few times. Seattle’s cornerback Richard Sherman is 2nd in the league with 8 interceptions this year, and is a ferocious hitter that makes him what most call a shut down corner. This defense is a nightmare and it seems to be only getting stronger every week. They have held their opponents to 17 points or fewer the last 5 games. Washington’s defense while playing okay and has been opportunistic, does not match up well with this powerful Seahawks offensive machine. Quarterback Russell Wilson has put his road woes behind him and has matured into a top quarterback in the league. In his last 8 games he has thrown 16 touchdowns with only 2 interceptions. He has been allowed the time mature due to his beast of a running back Marshawn Lynch. Lynch has been an unstoppable force this year and has rushed for close to 1,600 yards with an outstanding 5.0 yards per carry. Redskins also have an incredible running attack with Alfred Morris rushing for over 1600 yards this year and just bulling his way through defenses. Today, is different for sure. While Morris will get his yards, it won’t be enough to keep pace with a Seattle offense that has outscored their opponents 150-30 over a 3 game span. Washington will have to pass to win, and as good as RGIII is, the Seahawks defense cannot be taken advantage of, it’s just that good. I expect by the end of this game for the Redskins to really feel the beating of this dominant Seattle defense and be forced into mistakes that will cost them the game. RGIII will have to run for his life today, but unfortunately he won’t be doing it at full speed, and that is going to be painful. Seattle goes into this game having been able to rest their team last week, while the Redskins had to go all out to pull out a win last week, another edge for the Seahawks that for me just about seals the deal for a dominant win today. We just may be watching the NFC representative for the Superbowl play today, it will be easy to see why by the time the final whistle blows.

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