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Jan 05

Aramon’s NFL Wildcard Playoff Picks Part 1

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

Here it is, the best part of the NFL season, the playoffs! They come in the nick of time as we had a tough couple of weeks ending the season. With all teams now playing meaningful games again, we can fairly and accurately analyze them to see once again who gives us the best value. I will do my best to give you at least some analysis for every game in these playoffs including the Superbowl. It gets tougher to always find a value in these games as the competition is now stiffer with all teams being at least somewhat decent. But as always, we look for keys in the match ups that reveal what will determine a good wager. I think I have found something in both games today, even something that goes against the popular grain. I just hope I’m right, we could use a nice win to kick off the playoff run.

A recap of last Sunday’s result and where we stand to date:

Sunday’s results : -6.0 units
10% house vig on losses : -1.1 units
Total to date : +25 units profit

For information purposes the betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of £1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide £1000 by 100 (=£10) and multiply that by 5 (=£50). A running total will be kept at the top of each pick article so that you can keep track of how well/poorly Aramon is doing this season.

Today’s Games as I see it:

For those not familiar with sportsbetting when a number is shown next to a team’s name that number represents the handicap for an even money wager. So in our first pick of this week the Houston Texans would have to beat the Cincinnati Bengals by more than 4 points for us to lose this bet. So place this wager at any book that offers an even money wager with the Texans handicapped by 4 point or more.

Cincinnati Bengals +4 over Houston Texans : Bet 4 units

Result : Cincinnati Bengals 13 – 19 Houston Texans

I believe this is finally the year the Bengals break through and win their first playoff game since 1990. They will also do it against a team in the Houston Texans that they have not been able to beat the last 5 meetings, including last year’s playoff game. This year is different. Bengals come into this game winners of 7 out of their last 8, as well as 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 road games. They are obviously the hotter team as Houston limps into the playoffs losing their last 2 and dropping out of the top seed in the AFC playoff picture. Not only did they drop in the rankings they lost their first round bye that was all but wrapped up just a couple of weeks ago. Texans have had meaningful games all month but have struggled mightily to close the season. Many compare this floundering Texan team to the one of last year where they were able to turn it on in the playoffs after dropping their last 3 games of the regular season. Not a chance. Last year they lost their quarterback Matt Schaub who was having a stellar year at the time, at the end of the season which caused them to faulter at the close of the season. This year they have their full strength of weapons and they just are not getting it done. That should pose a problem going up against Cincinnati’s 6th ranked defense that has not allowed more than 20 points in its last 8 games. Bengals have an extraordinary front 4 on defense that can pressure the passer and in turn frees up the rest of defense to shut down the run as well. The Texan defense on the other hand while being very reliable and tough most of the year, has been very prone to giving up the big play a lot lately. With the Bengals star wide receiver A.J. Green being a touchdown machine, this could prove to be the fatal mistake that sends the Texans home with an early playoff exit. Even with Houston’s possible Defensive Player of the year candidate J.J. Watts roaming the field wreaking his own havoc, he is only one man and the rest of the league seems to have caught onto that fact as the season came to a close and has game planned accordingly. I believe it’s a close game, but it’s always a good bet to take the team with the better defense getting points. Today that would be the Cincinnati Bengals.

Green Bay Packers -9.5 over Minnesota Vikings : Bet 6 units

Result : Green Bay Packers 24 – 10 Minnesota Vikings

When the line first came out this week for this game I thought, wow this is going to be a tough call. Afterall, the Vikings did beat the Packers last week to get into the playoffs, and these are divisional rivals that play tough against each other. Well I’m going to let you in on a secret that I think I’m alone on here, this game is going to be a blowout win for the Green Bay Packers. Not that I totally dismiss the Vikings do or die win last week, but different week, different game today. Now everybody has jumped on Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson bandwagon and has proclaimed him the savior to a Vikings offense that has done very little without him. While it’s true Peterson is the best running back in the league, and what he has accomplished this year is nothing short of super human, until he starts playing quarterback, he can be controlled and even made inconsequential this week against another super human, Aaron Rodgers. There is only one way to stop Adrian Peterson’s brutal running, keep him off the field. Packer’s quarterback Aaron Rodgers is one of the best talents in the league as well. He has the ability and the weapons to score lots of points. If Minnesota finds themselves starting to fall behind by more than 1 score, they just might have to abandon the run for the most part and try to pass to get back into the game. While Viking’s Christian Ponder has played better the last couple of games with last week being his best, without Peterson being the main man, the Vikings will crumble. It also has been reported that Ponder will be playing hurt today, which for a borderline talent could spell trouble. The Packers also get a big boost on defense today with getting Charles Woodson back in their secondary. The biggest factor in this game should be the return of Packers wide receiver Randall Cobb which will give Rodgers a completely healthy arsenal of weapons to choose from today. With Vikings cornerback Antoine Winfield playing with a broken hand today, look for the Packers receivers to exploit this Minnesota defense all day. Rodgers once again was by far the highest rated passer in the league, now he gets to do it with his full array of offensive threats, this is going to be something to watch. For those who want to rewind to last week to tout the Vikings chances, you must remember a few things. First off that game was played in the Vikings comfy domed stadium, this game is being played on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field. Also the Packers were down in that game by 27 and came back and tied that game only to lose by a fieldgoal at the end. They won’t be down like that at home with their full healthy team on the field. There will be no chance to see the great Adrian Peterson all game long running over the Packers. Without a lead and having to play from behind, the Vikings are toothless.

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