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Aramon’s Preseason Betting Theory: Week 1 (cont. 8-9-13)

Posted by THEPOGG on Aug 09, 2013

Ok, so do we have a trend developing? Still too soon to tell, but what we do have is a preseason underdog record of 5-2 so far after last nights games. I’m not going to get too excited about anything here yet as it is really just the very beginning, but its always nice to look at something from the top instead of the bottom. Tonight has another 8 games to take a look at as well as 1 Saturday and 1 on Sunday. I’ll give all the rest of the weeks lines now as they really don’t seem to have much movement and for the sake of our study any slight movement shouldn’t be a factor. I will post the lines according to Pinnacle Sports and as always I will be taking only underdogs. Here are the rest of week 1’s lines with all the underdogs listed first in each match up with home teams in parentheses:

Friday’s Games:

  • (Jacksonville Jaguars) +1 Miami Dolphins
  • New York Jets +4 (Detroit Lions)
  • New England Patriots +3.5 (Philadelphia Eagles)
  • Arizona Cardinals +2 (Green Bay Packers)
  • Chigago Bears +3 (Carolina Panthers)
  • Kansas City Chiefs +3 (New Orleans Saints)
  • Houston Texans +1 (Minnesota Vikings)
  • (Oakland Raiders) +1.5 Dallas Cowboys

Saturday’s Game:

  • New York Giants +2.5 (Pittsburgh Steelers)

Sunday’s Game:

  • Buffalo Bills +3.5 (Indianapolis Colts)

Something I have noticed so far in theses games other than the majority of the underdogs winning is, the over total has hit in 6 of the 7 games as well. The game totals given by the books have been very much on the low side so far and this slate of games seem no different. The games totals are ranging between 34 and 36.5, aside from the Patriot/Eagle game which is at 40. If you take out the one low scoring game between the Broncos and 49ers (10-6) the rest of the games this preseason have averaged 46.3 points per game. Again, not enough to say we have something, but an observation nonetheless. I would also like to note that the Dolphins and Cowboys will be playing in their 2nd game of the preseason tonight as they played each other last week in the earlier Hall Of Fame Game. Not sure if this has any bearing on the games, but seemed worth noting, as well as Cowboy starting quarterback Tony Romo will be starting the game for Dallas Tonight. He was out last week in their first game of the preseason.

I will comment on this weeks games as well as post a full tally of the records after this weeks games have played out. Its been eye opening for me to actually watch these preseason games like never before and certain things have jumped out at me that may help in fine tuning this theory I’m working on. I’ll just wait and see how these next games play out and see how the trends develop. As always, remember I am not offering wagering tips or predictions with the preseason. Anything we do here is just for fun and for the purpose of gathering information.

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