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Aug 15

Aramon’s 2013 Preseason Betting Theory: Week 2

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

So here we go again, tonight starts week 2 of the 2013/2014 NFL preseason. So far my underdog theory is looking pretty good as the underdogs hold an 11-6 lead over the favorites, but there are still many games to go so no conclusions just yet (But I like my chances). Anyway, here are the 4 games being played tonight. I have listed the underdogs first, with the home team being in parentheses. This week I will also list the game totals to the right of the teams as I may have noticed a lean to the over totals in preseason games.

  • Detroit Lions +2 (Cleveland Browns) 42.5
  • Atlanta Falcons +4.5 (Baltimore Ravens) 41.5
  • Carolina Panthers +3 (Philadelphia Eagles) 44
  • San Diego Chargers +6 (Chicago Bears) 37

The first thing that stands out to me this week is…….all the favorites are the home team. All the teams tonight are, as well as so far what I have seen for the rest of the games this week. Last week it was only 6 out of 17 that were home favorites, and I believe that had a lot to do with low volume wagering on the 1st preseason week. This week seems to have opened the flood gates, and I believe this to be a really a good thing for our underdog premise because there seems to be such a favorite bias like is NEVER seen during any kind of regular season. I find it very hard to believe that there is any possible way that these preseason squads that field lower tier players for the most part for 75% of a game, can be evaluated to give a conclusion that all the home teams are superior to the visitor. I believe the books need to get the hometown squares on board for their team, so regardless of what walks on the field for these teams, I feel the lines do not represent any sort of skill superiority in one team over another.

A couple of things to note, the Lions and Browns both seem to keep their starters in longer than the average preseason norm so that game should be one to watch. A great chance for an over, and the Lions have a far more experienced offense team and Quarterback in Matthew Stafford so its nice to see them getting points. Also I think the Ravens eventhough they are home are getting way too much credit for scoring 44 points last week. I like that they are giving the Falcons points even if both starting squads will be off the field way before halftime. So as always we will be taking all the underdogs and see what kind of results come of it

Up to date results:

Week 1: Underdogs won 11 lost 6

Week 1 : Game totals over 12 out of 17

Year to date Underdogs record: 11-6

Year to date Underdogs Winning percentage: 64.7%

Year to date game total over percentage: 70.6%

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