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Feb 07

Aramon’s Super Bowl Pick 2016

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

NFL

Well we did it….we made it to the Super Bowl comfortably profitable for the season! It has been a pretty decent year for us as we never really went to far negative nor for very long. This was a season in which we were more conservative in how large our bet spread was, but more aggressive in betting larger within the smaller spread. We had fewer peaks and valleys and maintained a nice level but positive trend all season. Last weeks win saw our prediction put us up nearly 15% on the seasons profit total which is a decent take on 5 months for an investment. With today’s Super Bowl pick I look to add even more to the year end total and end this season on a high note. Stay tuned in the week to follow and I will break down the results of this successful season of our NFL wagering and post the results. So sit back and enjoy this last game of this fine NFL season…..topped off with what I think should be an upset and as well as a profitable Super Bowl.

Sunday’s results : +5.0
Total to date : +14.9 units

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Denver Broncos +5 over Carolina Panthers : Bet 3 units

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Result:

This game as all Super Bowls has been hyped now for two weeks. Its a special game because it may mark the end of an era for the future hall of famer Peyton Manning’s amazing career, and kick off the super stardom of quite possibly the most gifted athlete to ever play QB in the NFL, Cam Newton. Its also been about race with Cam being black and flamboyant, and also about does Peyton have one more game in that tired worn out body as it stumbles to the end of his career. To be honest, neither of those story lines should determine the outcome of this game. Especially Cam Newton’s race. His dominance in this league this year cannot be denied and he is the best player in the NFL at the moment. Carolina comes into this game the best team in the NFL, thus them giving 5 points to Denver. Very few people in the public eye are giving the ugly way Denver has won enough credit to even be competitive with this juggernaut of a team in Carolina that has just steam rolled through the playoffs. Well, I like this matchup, and not for Carolina. As I see it the Panthers should still be favored, but by less then a field goal. The Super Bowl more then any other game all season has its line determined more by the public betting then any other game. The sharps in Vegas cannot play enough to move the lines to correct it, so…..we get an advantage. Denver’s win against the Patriots to get into the Super Bowl may not have looked as impressive as Carolina’s beatdown of Arizona, but it’s not meant to be. The Broncos play an ugly style of offense by design. It doesn’t matter if Manning can’t chuck the ball like he used to, he’s still the smartest player on the field and the plan is to use short passes and runs to eat up clock and keep that dynamic Carolina offense led by Superman Cam Newton off the field. As long as Denver protects the ball and doesn’t turn it over, then they should win the time possession battle today and not need to score as much as many think they need to. Also, a lot has been said about a good Carolina defense that has really played well down the stretch. But lets not overlook the best defense in this game, belongs to the NFL’s leading defense in the Denver Broncos. Now I’m not saying even this top rated defensive squad of Denver will be able to totally stop Newton, but this will be the toughest one he faced all season and with Carloina getting less time on offense, I believe Denver who led the league in turnovers and sacks, may force some Carolina offensive mistakes. I think this is going to be a tough and close game, one that will see Denver in it the whole way. I know Peyton Manning is just a shell of his former self, but if there was one person to bet on to come up big for just one more game, most likely his last, he is who I put my money on. He doesn’t have to be great. Just good enough to keep the Panther defense honest and at bay. I see him doing this, and quite possibly, riding off in the sunset after today’s game with a fairy tale ending to an incredible carer.

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