Note from ThePOGG – This article should have been published in the middle of the season last year, but got buried under a lot of other work. This is entirely my fault!
In the last article – The Cost of a Handicapper – we looked at how large an edge a tipster service can realistically give you, how much you were likely to earn from these services and therefore how much you could afford to pay.
The primary difference between my tips and other tipping services is that I don’t leave you to guess how much to bet. I specify exactly how much you should be betting for every game, correlating the bet size with how likely I think the bet is to win. This actually allows our system to exceed the profit levels for given win rates that you could obtain via flat or random betting.
There is a price for this stronger system and that price is increased variance. In the previous article I discussed how flat betting a handicapper with a 52.5% win rate would produce a guaranteed profit at the end of a season (not including the handicapper’s fees) and how varying your bet randomly would produce the same results in the long run, but in the short term it would be possible to lose over a season. By varying our bets we increase the advantage we have and therefore the profit we should make. The cost to us is that we will increase the variance over that of flat betting but – if I’m matching my bets with games correctly – our variance should not nearly approach that of random betting. So, as long as I have a winning % it could possibly happen that we lose over an entire season, but it’s far less likely and with random betting and in the long run we’ll make more money than either flat or random betting.
For those of you with a more mathematical leaning I’ll give a short example. If you’re not comfortable with maths, don’t worry about it. You don’t need to understand the figures as long as you can accept the conclusion.
Using a ten unit betting system as I do, let’s assume that I’m successful in matching the size of my bets to the likelihood of winning as follows below;
- At 1 unit there is a 53% chance of the bet winning
- At 2 units there is a 53% chance of the bet winning
- At 3 units there is a 54% chance of the bet winning
- At 4 units there is a 54% chance of the bet winning
- At 5 units there is a 55% chance of the bet winning
- At 6 units there is a 55% chance of the bet winning
- At 7 units there is a 56% chance of the bet winning
- At 8 units there is a 56% chance of the bet winning
- At 9 units there is a 57% chance of the bet winning
- At 10 units there is a 57% chance of the bet winning
Currently I have a 55% win rate so if you average the above percentages you’ll get the figure of 55%. [EDIT ThePOGG – At the time this was written Aramon’s win rate was 55%]
So if I play 100 games at each bet level (1000 games overall) here’s what average result would look like;
- 1 unit : (53×1)-(47×1.1) = 1.3 unit win
- 2 units : (53×2)-(47×2.2) = 2.6 unit win
- 3 units : (54×3)-(46×3.3) = 10.2 unit win
- 4 units : (54×4)-(46×4.4) = 13.6 unit win
- 5 units : (55×5)-(45×5.5) = 27.5 unit win
- 6 units : (55×6)-(45×6.6) = 33 unit win
- 7 units : (56×7)-(44×7.7) = 53.2 unit win
- 8 units : (56×8)-(44×8.8) = 60.8 unit win
- 9 units : (57×9)-(43×9.9) = 87.3 unit win
- 10 units : (57×10)-(43×11) = 97 unit win
Total win = 386.5 units
Total amount wagered = 5500 units
386.5/5500 x 100 = 7% advantage
When we compare this with the advantage that you would gain following a standard 55% win rate handicapper (5.5%) this is a 27% improvement through weighting out bets.
This is just an example of how correlating bet advantage with bet size does improve the edge, but it makes assumptions regarding an even distribution of bet sizes and how accurately I weight the bets. It is possible to vastly improve on the boost seen in advantage with stronger correlation between likelihood of a win and the bet size. If we look at the result for my pick so far this season, there’s still far too few results for us to draw any statistically valid conclusion, but if the distribution that we have seen so far in the season were to continue we’d be playing with a 15.48% advantage, a 180% improvement on the standard 55% win rate system. This means that despite the fact that I currently have a lower than 60% win rate, right now our system is only fractionally weaker than the best handicappers in the business. If my win rate was to improve, we would quickly surpass the best rate that could be expected by the best handicappers in the industry – and the best part is that my tips are free!
This illustrates perfectly the degree to which either flat betting or random betting misses out on the majority of the advantage and it is this vastly diminished service you are buying whenever whichever tipping service you look at fails to provide information on how much you should bet on their picks.
[EDIT ThePOGG – Last season (2012-13) Aramon’s overall win rate was 50.68%. If these tips had come from a standard tipping service, not taking into account the cost of buying the tips, this would have resulted in a losing season due to the vig charged on losing bets. The cost of buying the tips would make this substantially worse. With Aramon’s tiered betting system the bankroll increased by 23.9% over the season and the actual player edge – once the vig was accounted for was 5.17%. This is equivalent to what you would make with a regular tipster with a win rate close to 55%, but due to the cost of buy the tips – which you don’t have to do with Aramon’s – is substantially underestimating the profitability you would achieve following Aramon.]
My suggestion to all sports bettors looking for a reliable handicapping service is to just be aware and well informed. Following my picks and suggested bets you will be armed with all that is needed to make a profit far greater than whatever else may be offered to you. Play like a pro, play the values and keep the guessing out of it. I can offer no guarantees in the way of promising wins and profit. What I can and do offer is a far better way to get the most out of the handicapping system. I put my picks and wagers on display every week for all to see, nothing is hidden. All the evidence you need is right there to realize this is the far easier and more optimal way for the bettor to get the most out of each week. Every pick comes with analysis and how much to wager on it. I’m not asking you to trust me (hell, you don’t even know me), I’m asking you to look at my results. The units/money won, that’s the bottom line and right now the profit I’ve made is equalling the top end of the industry. Overall winning percentage can be a good selling point for a lot of handicappers, I could use that as well, but I also include the far and away better and more accurate gauge of betting success..…money won. To me, everything else is just noise in the equation.
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