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Nov 15

Aramon’s Week 11 Picks Part 1

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

Well even though it was a slight disappointment in Monday Nights pick, we still find ourself in a good position on the year. If not for Steeler quarterback Big Ben getting knocked out of the game in the 3rd quarter, and being replaced by backup Byron Leftwich who hasn’t played in 2 years, things may have gone to plan. But thats not what we dwell on. It was small unit bet for a reason, and the game proved it out why. However tonight we look to add to our win totals and continue on to a 5th straight positive week.

A recap of Monday’s result and where we stand to date:

Monday’s results : -2.0 units
10% house vig on losses : -0.2 units
Total to date : +23.5 units profit

For information purposes the betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of £1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide £1000 by 100 (=£10) and multiply that by 5 (=£50). A running total will be kept at the top of each pick article so that you can keep track of how well/poorly Aramon is doing this season.

Todays Game as I see it:

For those not familiar with sportsbetting when a number is shown next to a team’s name that number represents the handicap for an even money wager. So in our first pick of this week the Miami Dolpins cannot lose by more than 1 point for us to win this bet. So place this wager at any book that offer an even money wager with Buffalo handicapped by 1 point or less.

Miami Dolphins +1 over Buffalo Bills : Bet 4 units

Result : Miami Dolphins 14 – 17 Buffalo Bills

Miami is just not as bad as they played last week. Conversely, the Bills close competitive loss to the Patriots last week does not mean they are that good. Look for Miami to exploit a Bills weak defense. Although Dolphin quarterback Ryan Tannehill had a rough game last week throwing 2 interceptions, I expect him to bounce back and play a safe conservative game as I don’t expect the Bills pass rush to be able to pressure him much. Partly because Buffalo has been mediocre at best with just 20 sacks all year, as well as Miami should be able to mount a running attack early and often against a Bills run defense that ranks worst in the league. Look for a heavy dose of Dolphin running back Reggie Bush to run all over the Bills for a big day, much like what he did against them in week 15 of last year rushing for over 200 yards. Buffalo’s replacement running back C.J. Spiller, in for Fred Jackson, has been outstanding, but with Miami’s 6th ranked run defense in the NFL, they should be able to contain him just enough to force Bills quarterback Fitzpatrick to try to beat them through the air. This should allow Miami’s defense to capitalize on Fitzpatrick’s tendency to turn the ball over. Miami bounces back into the playoff hunt tonight in a game they must win.

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