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Oct 21

Aramon’s Week 7 NFL Top Picks

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

Well as anyone can see last week can only be defined as a debacle as far as the picks went. It does happen occasionally, but just the same it stings. The NFL has been a complete parody this year, but as the dust settles on the last weeks carnage, there appears to be some clarity beginning to form.

Last weeks results : -18 units
10% house vig on losses : -1.8 units
Total to date : -19.8 deficit

For information purposes the betting size suggested is based on and bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of £1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide £1000 by 100 (=£10) and multiply that by 5 (=£50). A running total will be kept at the bottom of all subsequent weeks picks so that you can keep track of how well/poorly Aramon is doing this season.

Good games this week to stop the bleeding. Heres how I see it:

For those not familiar with sportsbetting when a number is shown next to a team’s name that number represents the handicap for an even money wager. So in our first pick of this week the New York Giants would have to beat the Washington Redskins by 6 points or more. So place this wager at any book offer an even money wager with New York handicapped by 6 points or less.

When over/under bets are discussed this is in reference to the combined number of points scored by both teams. So in this weeks picks the Tennessee Titans vs Buffalo Bills, if the combined scores are over 48 points, you win this bet.

New York Giants -6 over Washington Redskins : Bet 3 units

Although Redskins beat the Giants twice last season fairly handily, the Redskins are a different team this year. The difference being the quicker tempo style they have adapted for rookie phenom quarterback Robert Griffin III, which may play exactly into the hands of the Giants defense and pass rush. Giants seem to get bored and play down to lesser opponents, but with this being a divisional game, and looking to avenge embarrassing losses of last year, look for the Giants to getup for this game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1 over New Orleans Saints : Bet 5 units

Saints are 1-4 with the only win being an emotional win at home when Saints quarterback Drew Brees broke the record for consecutive games with a touchdown pass. Yes Drew Brees is great, but the Saints are one dimensional with no running game to speak of this year, and a coaching staff that only exists in a memory due to suspensions. Buccanneers are coming off an absolute thumping of the Chiefs last week and are 4-1 against the spread. Look for a big game for both quarter backs but watch for Drew Brees to make mistakes trying to overcompensate.

Tennessee Titans vs Buffalo Bills take the over total of 48 : Bet 5 units on the Over bet

In this game you have 2 defenses that can’t do much to stop either the running or passing game. With both teams having explosive running games and very capable veteran quarterbacks in Hasselback and Fitzpatrick, this all spells tons of points. Fun game to watch, root for both and watch them run up and down the field all day.

Houston Texans vs Baltimore Ravens take the over total of 46.5 : Bet 7 units on the Over bet

A couple of years ago, even last season, it may not have been smart to bet against the Raven defense to give up points. But they are giving up well over 100 yards per game this year over last year, and that was before their defense became decimated with injuries. I know star linebacker Terrell Suggs has been activated this week, but there is little chance he has much impact yet. Texans coming off a tough loss to Packers last week look to rebound this week, and this hurting Ravens defense is just what the doctor ordered. Texans should score often. Also keep in mind Raven offense is much better than expected and will do their best to match Texans score for score. Raven quarterback Joe Flacco has proven he has the weapons and the skill to air it out with the best of them. This one should add up quickly.

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