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Oct 25

Aramon’s Week 8 NFL Picks – part 1

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

Coming off a good but not great week. All weeks with a win are good, but really just a couple of plays from being great. Giants just miss a cover, and if not for a penalty on Tampa Bay in the endzone with time expiring, we may have a much different scenario for the week. But really, none of that matters as far as wins and losses seeing its unchangable after the fact. The positive we can take from even the losses last week is that the analysis was right on even if the result was not favorable. So we can assume our trend upward begins.

So lets recap last week and where we stand to date:

Last weeks results : +4 units
10% house vig on losses : -0.8 units
Total to date : -16.6 deficit

For information purposes the betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of £1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide £1000 by 100 (=£10) and multiply that by 5 (=£50). A running total will be kept at the top of each pick article so that you can keep track of how well/poorly Aramon is doing this season.

I believe tonights game is a great way to start off week 8. Here’s how I see it:

For those not familiar with sportsbetting when a number is shown next to a team’s name that number represents the handicap for an even money wager. So in our first pick of this week the Minnesota Vikings would have to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 6.5 points or more – in otherwords 7 point. So place this wager at any book offer an even money wager with Minnesota handicapped by 6.5 points or less.

When over/under bets are discussed this is in reference to the combined number of points scored by both teams. So in this weeks picks the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Minnesota Vikings, if their combined scores are under 43 points (42 points or less), you win this bet.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6.5 over Minnesota Vikings : Bet 7 units

Result : Tampa Bay Buccaneers 36 – 17 Minnesota Vikings

The Buccanneers seem to be playing their best ball on the road this season. They have covered the pointspread and had near wins at the Giants and the Cowboys, and for the season have been competitive in every game. Yes, Minnesota is a better team than last year, but even still, Tampa Bay beat them last year and are 5-0 against them in their last 5 meetings. Minnesota’s young Quarterback Christian Ponder has been having a good year (exluding last weeks total of only 58 yards), but its star running back Adrian Peterson that will dominate the show. This means a slow low scoring game controlled by the running game. I don’t think anyone will run away with this one, and Tampa Bay is just getting too many points to pass this up.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Minnesota Vikings Take the under total of 42.5 : Bet 3 units

Result : Tampa Bay Buccaneers 36 – 17 Minnesota Vikings

Even with how Tampa has been able to score some big points this year, I think this matchup spells a close low scoring game. The Vikings have hit the under in their last 4 Thursday night games. Even more relevant is the fact this season all short week games are 5-1 with the under. A short week means that the teams are playing on short rest, and have less time to prepare more elaborate game plans. This game looks to be played on the ground which means alot of clock chewing drives. Barring scores on defense this game should stay close and low scoring.

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