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Sep 21

Aramon’s2014/15 NFL Picks: Week 3 (Sunday)

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

NFL

Alright, week 3 has started well for us with a nice easy win on Thursday nights game with Atlanta. Although the game was more lopsided than I think anyone could have predicted, it was ultimately as how I saw the game was supposed to go which is how I judge a positive result. Of course winning some cash doesn’t hurt either! This Sunday see’s us staying true to our conservative approach, but the information is starting to come in now so I believe our value games are getting stronger. Today we have 4 plays, all I feel really have high value potential. Really looking to have our first strong week of the season….and begin building that bankroll!

Thursdays’s results : +3 units
Total to date : +0.4 units

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Green Bay Packers +2 over Detroit Lions : Bet 3 units

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Result: Green Bay Packers 7 : 19 Detroit Lions

Green Bay, a pre season favorite to have a big time season has really stumbled out of the gate and pulled out a very close come from behind win last week to avoid starting the season 0-2. That is really boding well for us here. The Packers are a far better team than they have showed thus far, and they proved just how capable they are at being great right before the half last week going 97 yards for a TD in just over a minute and a half against a tough Jet defense. The second half saw the return of that dynamic Packer offense led by arguably the best QB in the game Aaron Rodgers. While the Packer defense will have its hands full today trying to contain big time WR Calvin Johnson, its the injuries and lack of depth to the Lions defense that will make the difference in this game. The Packers have notoriously owned the Lions in recent years going 14-2 straight up as well as 12-4 against the spread. This game looks to be much of the same. I believe the Packers to be at least 3 points better than the Lions and with them getting points, this is a no brainer. Watch for Aaron Rodgers to have a huge game today which should force Detroit QB Matthew Stafford into a shootout as the Lions ground game has been anemic. This should cause Stafford into typical mistakes that will offset some big passing numbers he will put up. Packers should outright win this game.

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San Diego Chargers +2 over Buffalo Bills : Bet 2 unit

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Result: San Diego Chargers 22 : 10 Buffalo Bills

Talk about no respect. The Chargers come off of not only a win over Super Bowl Champ Seattle, but a dominant win, and they are underdogs against the surprising 2-0 Buffalo Bills. Well the Bills are home, Chargers are traveling east for an early game, San Diego finds their starting RB Ryan Matthews hurt for the game, yes theses are all things everybody is looking at and has drawn the conclusion…Buffalo is the better team?? Really? Well believe it or not I am on an island with this game because all the experts as well as the betting public are looking as this being a tough spot for the Chargers. Well according to how I figure things in this increasingly QB driven league, the Chargers have a huge advantage in that department with Phillip Rivers being far superior to the Bills young 2nd year and highly inconsistent QB E.J. Manuel. As far as the Chargers losing their RB Matthew’s, the running game has been been very poor anyway and the value of replacement with RB Donald Brown does not take away from the Chargers ground game. And while Buffalo has shown a good pas rush defense this year, if the big offensive line of the Chargers could keep that ferocious Seattle defense off of Phillip Rivers, Buffalo will be hard pressed to make that a factor. Many are looking at this as a let down game for the Chargers as they come off such an impressive win, I see it more as a statement game to show they are a viable Super Bowl contender, while at the same time showing, pump the brakes on this Buffalo team. While they are not a bad team, this 2-0 start does not have them at an elite level. I will enjoy being on my island alone….but with cash in hand on this game.

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Seattle Seahawks -4.5 over Denver Broncos : Bet 2 units

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Result: Seattle Seahawks 26 : 20 Denver Broncos

Well here we go, a match up of last Super Bowl’s teams…very exciting. Well no not really. Last year on a neutral field the Seahawks whipped up on poor Peyton Manning and his Denver Broncos in a truly embarrassing fashion. Now Denver is supposed to come into Seattle, the biggest home field advantage in the NFL, and perform better? No, I really don’t think so. Especially with Seattle coming off a very disappointing loss on the road in San Diego last week, watch for a laser like focus by the Seahawks today. While Denver comes into Seattle with a 2-0 record they have been far less impressive this year averaging around 100 yards of offense less than last year. They will need to be perfect to come into Seattle and even be competitive let alone pull the upset. That is an almost impossible task playing this Seattle team at home. Seahawks are 11-5 against the spread when coming off a loss, and 39-18-1 their last 58 games at home. There is no other team in the NFL even close to those numbers. Meanwhile the Broncos while Manning has been their QB has yet to win on Fieldturf fields like the one they face the champs on today. This I believe is not even going to be as competitive game as the public betting has been showing. Look for the Seahawk defense to have a big day, and on offense Seattle’s go to man Percy Harvin should prove to be more than the Broncos can handle. Any team coming into Seattle this week would be walking into a buzzsaw with the Seahawks playing at home after a loss, even Peyton and his Broncos.

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Carolina Panthers -3 over Pittsburgh Steelers : Bet 2 units

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Result: Carolina Panthers 19 : 37 Pittsburgh Steelers

While this was forecasted to be a down year for Carolina they have come out and looked every bit the strong playoff team they were last year. The defense has been very strong and with QB Cam Newton back from injury now for his second game, the offense looks potent and powerful. The Steelers on the other hand have looked shaky at best. Their offensive line play has been bad which has allowed Steeler QB Ben Rothlisberger to get beat up already in just the first 2 games this season. Big Ben looks to be far from the same after taking a big hit to the chest this season. Not sure if he can bounce back but even at 100% this Carolina defense should prove more than the Steelers O line can handle. Carolina is also virtually unbeatable at home lately going 7-1-1 against the spread. With Carolina only giving up 21 points combined these first 2 games, and Pittsburgh getting outscored 50-9 over just the last 6 quarters, this looks like a nightmare matchup for the Steelers coming into Carolina. I wouldn’t be surprised if this game is not even close and if Roethlisberger isn’t on the field by the end of the game.

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