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Dec 30

Aramons’s NFL Picks Week 17 Part 1

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

Well we have stumbled a bit at the end of the regular season with the teams playing out of their statistical norm due to their playoff, or non playoff agenda. The good thing about this week I believe is that its the last week and the table is set. Team’s motivations are clear and how they handle it are for the most part just as transparent. Our wagers are moderate this week for no other reason than as much as I like these bets, the lines have been so skewed due to the last weeks playoff possibilities that it has devalued the picks somewhat. Not if they will win or lose, just how they are weighted. Just a couple of points here or there this week could’ve had made this week a monster, but it is the nature of this NFL beast. At any rate I send you into the new year with great wagering opportunity, and next week we attack the every challenging NFL playoffs!

A recap of last Sunday’s result and where we stand to date:

Sunday’s results : -6.0 units
10% house vig on losses : -0.6 units
Total to date : +31.1 units profit

For information purposes the betting size suggested is based on a bankroll of 100 units. So if you had a bankroll of £1000 and the suggested bet was 5 units, simply divide £1000 by 100 (=£10) and multiply that by 5 (=£50). A running total will be kept at the top of each pick article so that you can keep track of how well/poorly Aramon is doing this season.

Today’s Games as I see it:

For those not familiar with sportsbetting when a number is shown next to a team’s name that number represents the handicap for an even money wager. So in our first pick of this week the New York Giants would have to beat the Philadelphia Eagles by more than 7.5 (8) points for us to lose this bet. So place this wager at any book that offers an even money wager with the Giants handicapped by 7.5 point or more.

When over/under bets are discussed this is in reference to the combined number of points scored by both teams. So in this weeks picks, in the Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos game, if their combined scores are over 41 points, you win this bet.

Philadelphia Eagles +7.5 over New York Giants : Bet 5 units

Result : Philadelphia Eagles 7 – 42 New York Giants

Its official, I no longer believe in these Giants to pull off the miracles they managed in the past. Their last 2 losses to the Falcons, and what I still believe to be a highly overrated Ravens team were a combined 67-14 drubbing. They let their season slip away by playing poorly down the stretch while they controlled their own playoff destiny every week, except this week. There is a very slim chance they can get into the playoffs with a win today, but they need losses by the Bears, Vikings, and Cowboys for this to happen. This is a sad state of affairs seeing that they started the season 6-2 firmly in charge of the division, but they have played so poorly in all the games they have needed down the stretch that it has all gotten away from them. It’s not going to get any easier today, even if it’s a game against an Eagle team that has struggled all year. This is a divisional game and historically the Eagles have owned the Giants in these match ups. The Eagles have already beaten the Giants this year 19-17, are 5-0 against the spread the last 5 games in New York, and are 7-1-1 against the spread in their last 9 meetings. On top of this, today see’s the return of Michael Vick at quarterback for the Eagles. Vick is in the unusual position of making today’s game an audition for a job for next year, either with the Eagles or another team. This makes him a very dangerous threat as he has always performed well when at a crossroads in his career. The Giants are just not healthy enough on defense to keep Vick honest and in the pocket, and Philly running back LeSean McCoy is back for his second straight week coming off injury and should be at full strength for this game. Giants have been dreadful lately and injuries and fatigue from a grueling schedule may just have sapped the heart from this team. They may be able to pull a win out here, but not by a touchdown and a hook (1/2 point). The Eagles are probably playing their last game with their head coach Andy Reid at the helm, as badly as this season has went, he is a very popular man with his team and I expect a very spirited effort from the Eagles against a Giant team that looks like its playing on fumes right now.

San Francisco 49ers -16.5 over Arizona Cardinals : Bet 6 units

Result : San Francisco 49ers 27 – 13 Arizona Cardinals

Ok, this week makes me look like I’m crazy but trust me these games are pretty much as they should be. The 49ers need this game badly for the possible division title, a first round bye, and rebound for the beating they took last week at the hands of the Seahawks. This 49ers defense is boiling over at having given up 42 points last week to a division rival when they were supposed to be the top defense in the league. What ever team that came into San Francisco this week was getting an absolute onslaught from this defense, it just so happens one of the worst teams in the league in the Arizona Cardinals gets that unenviable task. If this was a prize fight they just might stop it before the opening bell. Of all the elite teams this week the 49ers in my opinion have the most to play for this week, and they have only the hapless Cardinals, losers of 10 of their last 11, standing in their way. These 2 teams met earlier in the year with San Francisco winning that contest 24-3…….it won’t be that close this time. Back then Arizona had won 4 in a row and wasn’t as futile due to the fact they had a real NFL quarterback in Kevin Kolb. San Francisco at that had yet to dominate the league like they have mostly done since and played a very conservative offense with then starting quarterback Alex Smith. In the weeks since the Cardinals aside from 1 game have been absolutely disgraceful and still have not found a true starting quarterback since Kolb’s injury. They have only passed for 10 touchdowns all year, and their running game is no better with their best running back Beanie Wells only averaging 2.7 yards per carry. This is a disaster match up against a 49er defense that now ranks 3rd in the league in scoring defense looking to prove that last week was a fluke. San Francisco’s offense is even more dynamic now as well with Colin Kaepernick at quarterback. Not only does he throw the long ball more often, but he can run the ball as well as any quarterback in the league and is a nightmare to plan for defensively. What also makes this game very valuable is the fact that if the 49ers do jump out to a huge lead and do bring in the back up quarterback, that’s Alex Smith the best quarterback in the league that’s not starting. Some still argue he should still be starting due to his leading this 49ers team to huge success last year, and the beginning of this year. If he gets his chance to play, I expect no fall off in the 49ers offense. This is going to be a laugher, and I can’t see the Cardinals scoring much if even at all today against a highly motivated albeit slightly pissed off 49er team.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos Take the over total of 41 points : Bet 5 units

Result : Kansas City Chiefs 3 – 38 Denver Broncos

This game means quite a bit for the Denver Broncos. If they win today, depending on what happens with the Texans and the Patriots in their games, Denver may have a shot at home field throughout the playoffs, or at the very least get a bye and a home game. But they must win first, and that is exactly what they will do. The point spread is huge at 16.5 points being given to the underdog Chiefs, which still may not be enough, but with the Broncos tendency to take their foot off the gas in blowouts, I will leave that spread alone. However it is that same trait of Denver’s that makes taking the over total a good bet. According to what Denver has done this year I figure them to be worth around 34 to 38 points at home. I fully expect them to come out hard in this game looking to really get up and put a win away in hopes of bolstering their playoff position. The game total is low here based on how pathetic the Chiefs scoring has been. Their quarterback Brady Quinn has been awful throwing 0 touchdowns with 8 interceptions. That being said their running game has been stellar with running back Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis as well. Last week they ran for over 350 yards combined, that is amazing. Which leads me to my point, that I believe all the Chiefs will need to do is score a touchdown and maybe a field goal and this game goes over. The Broncos should push this game well out of hand and have scored 30+ points by the 3rd quarter, which should be enough to hit the over then, but if not, when Denver shuts it down to coast it should allow for at least 1 garbage time score for these offense challenged Chiefs. I think this is a very safe play, one that should be decided well before the final minutes of the game.

St. Louis Rams +10.5 over Seattle Seahawks : Bet 5 units

Result : St. Louis Rams 13 – 20 Seattle Seahawks

Upset alert! Some may call me crazy with this pick as the Seattle Seahawks just may be the hottest and best team in the NFL right now, and I agree with that. Seattle may be the horse to ride through the playoffs, but today is not the playoffs. It’s the last game of the season against a tough division rival who already beat them once this year. The factor that makes this game and wager so interesting and actually turns the tide in my opinion to the Rams favor, does not even have anything to do at all with this game. The Rams covering this point spread hinges on the 49ers beating the Cardinals today, which should be a bloodbath with the game being basically over by halftime. You see, the Seahawks have something to theoretically to play for today. If they win and 49ers lose they get a home game and a first round bye in the playoffs, but if the 49ers win nothing changes regardless of what Seattle does. What this means is I am virtually placing 2 bets on this game. I predict that once Seattle see’s the 49ers score is well in hand, they will be able to let off the gas and rest their stars because they will have to play next week and with nothing on the line cannot risk injury in a meaningless game. Now don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying they will roll over for these St. Louis Rams, what I am saying is its going to be a dogfight to begin with and if you aren’t on your top game, these Rams will hurt you. As much as “might” be on the line for Seattle, there is something very valuable on the line for the Rams…..pride. They are playing for their first winning record in almost a decade. Rams new head coach Jeff Fisher has implemented his winning ways into this ball club and they are buying into it full throttle. As a matter of fact, this surprising Ram team has not lost in their division this season going 4-0-1 already beating the Seahawks, while also beating the 49ers and tying them. We’re talking the cream of the crop of the league. With 10.5 points in the Rams favor, and in reality it not being a must win for Seattle, look for a fun competitive game with the Rams keeping it very close, and maybe even pulling out the upset win.

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