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Apr 19

Bogus Betting Systems

Posted by THEPOGG in Blog.

The start of this article will deal with the general issues with various ‘Pay me for my winning system’ websites and after that we will provide more specific information on some of the scams we encountered. Please don’t consider this list anywhere near exhaustive – frankly to document all of the ‘business people’ out there who would provide you with garbage and take your money would be a full time job in itself.

I’ve got the guaranteed winner, it’ll only cost you…..

As long as there has been gambling online, and a good length of time prior even thought they were harder to distribute, there have been conmen trading in lies, deceit and ignorance. It’s far from challenging to find these crooks; they’re everywhere and looking to sell you advice that will do you more harm than good.

What am I talking about here? Gambling System Sellers, that’s what. It’s very easy for the knowledgeable player to identify these clowns, but for those of you without a great deal of experience they’re relying on your own greed to cloud your judgement. That said, they’ll give you ever reason along the way to believe that what they are selling is legitimate.

Before you buy anything, ask yourself these questions – ‘If this system really works why would the seller be offering them to anyone at any affordable price? Does that not just risk the casinos finding out how they are being beaten and stopping it?’ – the answer to both of the questions is likely self-evident in ‘They wouldn’t be’ and ‘If it really did work sharing it out endangers the entire system’.

Let’s take a look at some of the key traits that almost all of these system salesmen have in common;

  1. Don’t release the system up front – in almost all bogus system cases, the seller holds the system until you pay a fee. They’ll regularly say that this is so the casinos do not find out how the system works.
  2. They’ll offer you this system at a fantastic knock down price, justifying it as a limited time offer or to let players know about this fantastic new system before they raise the price.
  3. They’ll give a high hourly earning level but will not provide supporting data to justify their claims.
  4. They’ll offer a money back guarantee if you’re not happy with the system within X days.
  5. They’ll offer player testimonials.
  6. They’ll generally target a low variance game like Blackjack, Baccarat or the even money bets in Roulette rather than a high variance game like Video Poker or Slots (this is a general trend however and is not exclusively true)

So let’s examine some of these factors. Point 1 and 2 go nicely together – they don’t want the casinos to find out about and stop players using this system, but they are selling at a price you can afford. Have a think about that for a moment; who’s likely to be able to afford more, you or a casino? If the casinos were really worried about the damage this system could do to them do you really think they couldn’t cover the cost of the package price to find out the gory details? The system isn’t hidden to stop it becoming known to the casinos, it’s hidden for two reasons – 1) so there’s a reason for you to part with your hard earned cash and 2) so that gaming experts don’t take a look and debunk the system straight away.

If we look at a system that can mathematically be proven to be able to beat casino games, the seminars on Card Counting and other Advantage Play strategies that the Blackjack Science team offer, we can see on their website this statement;

“The Blackjack Science seminars are open to the general public. However, persons affiliated with any casino, or with any detective agency collecting information on professional Blackjack players for casinos, are required to pay an additional fee of $750,000 per seminar, and should expect legal action for triple damages in the event they fail to declare their affiliation. In addition, their presence will be announced to all other Seminar participants ahead of time.”

That clear statement shows genuine intent to avoid educating casino personnel any further, though it should be noted that these techniques are discussed in various books and studies that are freely available and the intent of the addition fee is to protect the identities of attendees rather than the information on the strategies.

The bottom line is that the legal statement above may give a casino pause for thought, whereas a $100 price tag is not going to discourage even a small casino property if they were really interested in the strategy being sold.

Point 4, 5 and 6 also complement each other. Even if I’m selling a system that has no mathematical merit and I sell it to 100 customers, some of them are going to win. The system cost me next to nothing to make – often comprising of a word document sent over email – so my overheads are the cost of running my site alone. If I charge $20 to each customer then I’ll make 100x$20 = $2000. If my system uses a nice low variance game that offer the player close to a 50/50 chance of winning, there’s a very good chance that out of those 100 players, over a short period of a few weeks or a month, close to half of them will come out ahead. So what if I have to refund the ones that lose? The $2000 was all profit, so I essentially lose nothing. And that’s if I chose to honor the refund rather than simply ignore it.

This also works for the Testimonials, as I’ll have some winning players who are convinced the only reason there’s extra money in their pocket is that they bought my system, there will likely be some that are willing to say so on my site – and that’s if I don’t simply choose to make them up. How are is it really to post some pic of a random person I found online with a could of sentences in quotes basically saying “this system totally works!! I’m getting rich!!”

The longer a player plays with a bogus system the more likely it is that they’ll eventually lose, but with a large enough number of players there are always going to be some winners. I don’t particularly want to reinvent the wheel by going on to prove that which many smarter people than me have already done exhaustively so instead of debunking the various money management systems individually I’m going to provide a short list of useful resources or reports that demonstrate how players are fooled and why these systems do not work;

Derren Brown – The System. This is a 1 hour special by a well-known UK illusionist, wherein he gives one lucky player a winning system and lets them risk their life savings on it. It’s a fantastic demonstration of exactly how this sort of phony system is marketed and operates and Brown explains it all at the end. A fantastic watch both entertaining and informative. You can see it here.

Wizard of Odds – Michael Shackleford’s gaming site has extensive treatment of the various progression betting systems you are likely to encounter if you buy one of these systems and for a time at least offered a challenge where he’d wager $20k to your $2k that your betting system would not overcome the house edge in the long run. He was never proven wrong.

Blackjack Forum Online – Over the years Arnold Snyder – renowned blackjack author and advantage player – has published several articles dealing with phony system sellers. Here are some of the best –

Norm Wattenberger – author of what is unquestionably the premier blackjack training software every developed. Norm Wattenberger has also put together a site detailing various scam systems and games that he’s encountered while playing blackjack. This site offers a fairly comprehensive treatment of systems that should be avoided at the blackjack tables. (http://www.blackjack-scams.com/)

Wikipedia – Martingale betting system – look at the ‘Mathematical Analysis section for examination of how the classic progression betting system holds up under examination – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_%28betting_system%29#Mathematical_analysis.

Bogus Systems

Baccarat Barron – http://www.baccaratbaron.com/

Cost – $25.95 (11/3/2013)

Type – Positive Progression

An associate of the site recently brought us a copy of this system that they’d received directly from Baccarat Barron’s site owner for reviewing purposes. The site is selling a 4 page ebook detailing a system that purports to earn $197/hour. From the 4 page booklet, the first 2 pages are solely dedicated to explaining the basic rules of the game, something that can be found for free on this site and many others. The next two pages detail a series of input/output style instructions (i.e. if you’re $40 ahead bet this way) that all amount to a positive progression.

Verdict – Nothing new, interesting or valid here. This system will not overcome the house advantage in the long run.

Common Sense – If this system really worked it supposedly earns $197 in a single hour – it’d take 8 sales to surpass one hour of play!! 8 times the chances the casino could work it out. And how many hours to put together the ‘how to’ guide and website that could have been spent earning $197/hour.

Easy Money Blackjack – http://easymoneyblackjack.com/

Cost – $49.95 (18/03/2014)

Type – Streak Betting System

This site was brought to our attention when they tried to spam our comments. Their website ticks all 6 of the ‘key traits’ listed above. Simply put, their site is filled with flat out lies about the success of card counting, not only in terms of its feasibility but also in terms of factual accuracy (“estimate and divide the index number by the remaining cards or decks in the shoe” – wrong, index numbers require no division, “they require one to play only at a certain position at the table” – absolutely untrue, “if the player loses track of just one card on the table, the entire system may collapse and he may risk losing his entire bankroll by staying in the game” – not even close to the truth). This is done in an attempt to undermine the credibility of a legitimate winning system in an attempt to validate the rubbish they’re peddling.

Easy Money Blackjack depends on the identification of ‘streaks’. It is true that streaks do exist, they’re just not legitimately predictable in advance of them occurring. While Blackjack is a game with a history (cards that have been played), it’s be showing through extensive simulation that the results of the directly preceding hand has a negligible affect on the hand to come. For the purposes of players they should consider it a coins toss – i.e. the last result has no baring on whether heads or tails will come up this time.

Verdict – Buyer beware. As with any betting system, it will result in a few winners in the short term (hence the testimonials if they’re not flat out lies), but more players will end up on the losing side of the balance sheet.

Common Sense – If I toss a coin 100000 times there are a lot of possibilities to see 10 or more heads in a row. Stating that you can predict when that will happen is nonsense.

Roulette Sniper – http://www.roulettesniper.com/

Cost – $39.95 (30/01/2014)

Type – Bog Standard Betting System

This site was brought to our attention when they tried to spam our comments, ironically on a blog entry about cheating software. Their website ticks at least 5 out of the 6 ‘key traits’ listed above. Just another site pushing the idea that Roulette can be beaten simply by varying your bet.

Verdict – Buyer beware. As with any betting system, it will result in a few winners in the short term (hence the testimonials), but more players will end up on the losing side of the balance sheet.

Common Sense – This site is a casino affiliate (they send players to casinos and get a cut of what the players lose – if there players were winners, there’d be no profit to make from this.

2 Responses

misterblackjack
May 05, 2013

Unfortunately people will always fall victim to these bogus betting systems. Their emotion to win or cheat a system is greater than their sense of logic.

ThePOGG
May 05, 2013

I don't actually have a problem with people who play these betting systems - the truth is that they can make it a little more fun, betting into your 'hot streak'. And if you really believe you're betting system's a winner despite the maths, that's totally up to you.

What I do have a problem with is people profiting from passing on systems that are easily disprovable - there are so many people looking to part you from your money with a suckers promise if quick wealth.

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