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2013 NFL Preseason

Discuss Aramon's NFL picks
Aramon
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2013 NFL Preseason

Postby Aramon » Thu Aug 08, 2013 9:43 pm

Just letting all know that I'm back for the football season once again! Before the regular 2013/2014 season started I thought I may have some fun and look into a trend I noticed in the past with NFL preseason games. Now I'm not sure how viable this is, but it sure makes the usual painful experience of watching NFL teams field their seemingly inept exhibition squads a little more interesting. Check out the links to my blog posts on this and see what transpires.

http://thepogg.com/aramons-nfl-preseason-betting-theory-introduction/

http://thepogg.com/aramons-nfl-pre-season-betting-theory-week-1/

http://thepogg.com/aramons-nfl-preseason-betting-theory-week-1-cont-8-8-13/
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thePOGG
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Postby thePOGG » Fri Aug 09, 2013 11:54 am

Very early days, but the theory is looking good based on last night's games. With the idea of the underdog being the best bet 4 of 6 games were right last night. I'm not sure we'll get enough of a sample size to make this a viable betting strategy for next year, but if it plays the right was 2 years might show a strong enough bias to make it worthwhile.
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Aramon
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Postby Aramon » Fri Aug 09, 2013 4:06 pm

Last nights underdog record of 4-2 brings the total preseason total to 5-2. Still an insignificant sample size for sure, but it sure does help make the preseason interesting. I find myself for the first time rooting for coaches to take out the first string starters and let the scrubs play! It amazes me how big the talent drop off can be from starter to 3rd and 4th string, but at the same time how every teams lower rung players seem to be exactly the same......at least that how it seems so far.
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mister_blackjack
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Postby mister_blackjack » Sat Aug 10, 2013 3:29 am

maybe insignificant sample size but a nice win for those that followed
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thePOGG
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Postby thePOGG » Sat Aug 10, 2013 6:58 pm

Aramon wrote:It amazes me how big the talent drop off can be from starter to 3rd and 4th string, but at the same time how every teams lower rung players seem to be exactly the same......at least that how it seems so far.


I'm not so surprised by that tbh - in any field where talent's involved you are going to end up with a pyramid of skill. Lots of rubbish people at the bottom, a lot of fair players, some fairly talented individuals (college/3rd/4th string), a few really skilled players (1st and 2nd tier) and the very rare superstar. The further down the pyramid you drop the increase in population seems likely to be exponential.
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Postby Aramon » Wed Aug 14, 2013 4:02 pm

Week 1 of the preseason is done and so far so good. Check out my take on it so far at http://thepogg.com/aramons-2013-nfl-preseason-week-1-wrap-up/. I am feeling very strongly about week 2 as well, so don't miss out on my commentary on it. Look for it before the start of the games this Thursday August 15th
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Postby thePOGG » Thu Aug 15, 2013 9:21 am

I really liked what you're suggesting about the Overs bets. This actually makes real sense to me, just from the little I know of soccer football. Where amateur teams compete (local teams and what not, not league teams), my observation's always been that the scores go far higher than professional teams. That suggests to me that it's easier to score points than to defend against them, resulting in games where teams with less overall skill prompting higher scorelines.
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mister_blackjack
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Postby mister_blackjack » Fri Aug 16, 2013 5:55 pm

I'm sure if we had the data in front of our eyes maybe some predictions would jump out at us like average scores and their records in relation to last year.
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Postby thePOGG » Fri Aug 16, 2013 9:41 pm

mister_blackjack wrote:I'm sure if we had the data in front of our eyes maybe some predictions would jump out at us like average scores and their records in relation to last year.


That's my fault - Aramon's asked me to inquire with some sportsbooks regarding the game results and lines at kick off time for previous years (the game results would be easy enough to obtain, but they're meaningless without the lines for this purpose). I'm not entirely sure who to approach about this and I'm not convinced many of them will be happy to hand the lines out for this purpose, so I've been procrastinating somewhat and letting all the other jobs I have to do take priority. I'll try and talk to someone about this in the coming week.
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Postby thePOGG » Tue Aug 20, 2013 12:05 pm

I have sent off a request for this information (if it still exists) and if I get anything back I'll update it here.
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