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Aramon's NFL season 2013

Discuss Aramon's NFL picks
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thePOGG
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Postby thePOGG » Mon Oct 28, 2013 8:54 pm

And here's the week 8 results;

Carolina Panthers -6.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers : Bet 4 units - Won (+4 units)
New England Patriots -6 over Miami Dolphins : Bet 7 units - Won (+7 units)
Dallas Cowboys/Detroit Lions take the over total 50.5 : Bet 4 units - (+4 units)
Atlanta Falcons +1 over Arizona Cardinals : Bet 7 units - Lost (-7.7 units)
Seattle Seahawks -11.5 over St. Louis Rams : Bet 8 units - Lost (-8.8 units)

Total for the week :-1.5 units

Win % : 22 wins to 20 losses : 51%

Unit Win So Far : -12 units

Results at different bet sizes:

[TABLE="class: grid, width: 150, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]Lost[/TD]
[TD]Bet Size[/TD]
[TD]Won[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
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Aramon
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Postby Aramon » Thu Oct 31, 2013 7:39 pm

Wow, what a very disappointing game we had this past Monday night. Both teams played undisciplined penalty filled football, but the Rams were able to capitalize on it better than the Seahawks. Seattle made the Rams look like world beaters and were lucky that even though Seattle played a horrible game, their worst was somehow able to beat a Rams playing their best. A very odd game that went against everything that had happened with either team up to that point in the season. Thus, we lost a dismal game. Unfortunately it was the difference of us being in the black or red. No worries though, its been a tough season for most every handicapper I know, but we are still in striking distance of pulling ahead and it starts with a very nice play for tonight. Here's what we have for tonight:

Cincinnati Bengals -3 over Miami Dolphins Bet 5 units: A case of a hot team in the Bengals making their move for league supremacy facing a reeling Dolphin team that does not match up real well with Cincy's defense.

For my comprehensive breakdown of tonights game check me out at http://nflbettingtipsfree.blogspot.com/2013/10/aramons-201314-nfl-picks-week-9-thursday.html
Aramon
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Postby Aramon » Sun Nov 03, 2013 5:46 pm

It sure has been a trying time this season in getting over that negative hump. Just when we get there we tumble back down. No problem, we have another chance to pop back up again today as we have done in the past. We have 4 games today that I like and they should get us back in a fine position if all plays out like I believe it will. Here's what we have for today:

Tennessee Titans -3 over St. Louis Rams Bet 4 units:
Rams are coming off a short week against Seattle which very teams have been able to win the following week after playing the Seahawks. Tennessee is healthy and rested coming off a bye week.

Washington Redskins/San Diego Chargers take the over total 49.5 Bet 7 units: San Diego has a great offense and QB in Phillip Rivers, Washington has a terrible defense and an improving offense. Should be a recipe forbig time scoring.

Baltimore Ravens/Cleveland Browns take the under total 41.5 Bet 5 units:
Our first under bet of the year and its a good one seeing these two teams have stayed under the total the past 6 meetings including earlier this year in a Ravens 14-6 win.

New York Jets +6 over New Orleans Saints Bet 3 units:
This pick may shock many but the Jets are surprisingly a good matchup vs. the Saints. If New York keeps the turnovers to a minimum expect them to compete very closely in this game.

For my comprehensive breakdown of todays games check me out at http://nflbettingtipsfree.blogspot.com/2013/11/aramons-201314-nfl-picks-week-9-sunday.html
Aramon
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Postby Aramon » Mon Nov 04, 2013 8:06 pm

What a very good day we had yesterday, and very close to a perfect one! We won 3 of 4 wagers and missing on the one loss by just half a point. Not too shabby as we cleared an +8.5 unit profit yesterday. We have a nice play again tonight that should assure us of a stellar week as we start the second half of the season. Here's what we have for tonights game:

Green Bay Packers -10.5 over Chicago Bears Bet 5 units:
Packers are giving a lot of points to the Bears tonight and it still won't be enough. Bears are going into a gunfight with a pea shooter without there starting QB Cutler. Packers offense led by Aaron Rodgers will wear out the Bears defense on route to a classic blowout.

For my comprehensive breakdown of tonight's game check me out at http://nflbettingtipsfree.blogspot.com/2013/11/aramons-201314-nfl-picks-week-9-monday.html
Aramon
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Postby Aramon » Thu Nov 07, 2013 7:41 pm

I very rarely get upset at wins and losses as that is just part of the game. If you play with an edge, the odds are in your favor that you will ultimately come out ahead. That is how I feel about the season so far. We have been in a deficit but things are lining up pretty nicely to make a nice run as a lot of what I predict is spot on, yet the scores fall prey to some unfortunate luck. This past Monday did test my patience a bit however as Green Bay lost their superstar QB Aaron Rodgers just 3 minutes into the game, and this is after he led the Packers effortlessly down the field. Injuries during the game are impossible to predict, but the fact that Rodgers has only missed 1 game in his whole career to injury does lend itself to a fairly improbable scenario that Green Bay would be playing this game virtually without him. With that being said, with Aaron Rodgers being one of the most elite QB's in the league and by far the heaviest weighted factor in the decision to wager on the Packers vs the Bears against a huge point spread, if I had the information before hand I would have totally changed the edge of the game to the Bears favor. He means that much. So we got snake bitten again.

Anyway not to worry, we have a fantastic play tonight to start this week off just right. I expect a huge week for us and it begins today. Here's what we have for tonight's game:

Washington Redskins/Minnesota Vikings take the over total 48.5 Bet 7 units: Washington has been an over the total machine lately as their games have totaled 206 the last 3 games. Minnesota plays to the over as well with the best running back in the league in Adrian Peterson, and a QB in Christian Ponder that can put up points for his team, as well as make mistakes and give points to the opponent. A recipe for an easy win for us.

For my comprehensive breakdown of tonight's game check me out at http://nflbettingtipsfree.blogspot.com/2013/11/aramons-201314-nfl-picks-week-10.html
Aramon
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Postby Aramon » Sun Nov 10, 2013 4:42 pm

Well Thursday's game went well. A nice +7 unit win and no headaches or sweating it out at all. Everything went as according as planned just how we like it. Hopefully that has started the momentum rolling because we have HUGE aspirations on today's games. This will be the most games we have picked in 1 day with 6, and with the highest combined amount wagered for a single day with 39 units. And that is a wonderful thing. It is not often we find this big of an opportunity in one day so we must go for it, keeping in mind the odds are in our favor so this is our week to really cash in! Of course anything can happen, but with the betting advantage on our side I'll take my chances on these games every time. So without further ado here's what we have for this Sunday's games:

Philadelphia Eagles -1 over the Green Bay Packers Bet 10 units:
With the loss of their QB Aaron Rodgers the whole dynamic of this Packers team changes and with the Eagles playing well on the road all year this looks oddly like a mediocre Green Bay team that finds itself strangely out gunned today.

Buffalo Bills/Pittsburgh Steelers take the over total 43 Bet 8 units: Steelers defense is no longer that formidable and Buffalo has the fastest paced offense in the league. Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger will be game and throw it a lot to try to keep the Steelers in the game. Low number here makes it a fairly easy over bet.

Seattle Seahawks -4 over Atlanta Falcons Bet 6 units: Finally a decent number for the Seahawks to cover. Atlanta has been very bad and their passing has been mistake prone lately. Very bad for the Falcons going against that imposing Seattle defensive secondary.

Denver Broncos/San Diego Chargers take the over total 58 Bet 7 units:
Denver games have gone over the total every week. Against a Charger team with a great passing game and a poor passing defense, this game should fly past the total into video game type scoring amounts.

Houston Texans +3 over the Cardinals Bet 4 units:
Texans aren't as bad as their record shows. With a mistake free QB in Keenum they have shown new life. Look for Cardinal QB Carson Palmer to turn the ball over to a still very stout Houston defense as well.

Jacksonville Jaguars +13 over Tennessee Titans Bet 4 units:
Look for a competitive game from the Jaguars today as they have always played their division rival Titans very tough. Too many points to cover in what should be a low scoring game.

For my comprehensive breakdown of today's games check me out at http://nflbettingtipsfree.blogspot.com/2013/11/aramons-201314-nfl-picks-week-10-sunday.html
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thePOGG
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Postby thePOGG » Sun Nov 10, 2013 9:38 pm

Week 9 results;

Cincinnati Bengals -3 over Miami Dolphins : Bet 5 units - Lost (-5.5 units)
Tennessee Titans -3 over St. Louis Rams : Bet 4 units - Won (+4 units)
Washington Redskins/San Diego Chargers take the over total 49.5 : Bet 7 units
- Won (+7 units)
Baltimore Ravens/Cleveland Browns take the under total of 41.5 : Bet 5 units - Lost (-5.5 units)
New York Jets +6 over New Orleans Saints : Bet 3 units - Won (+3 units)
Green Bay Packers -10.5 over Chicago Bears : Bet 5 units - Lost (-5.5 units)

Total for the week : -2.5 units

Win % : 24 wins to 23 losses : 51%

Unit Win So Far : -14.5 units

Results at different bet sizes:

[TABLE="class: grid, width: 150, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]Lost[/TD]
[TD]Bet Size[/TD]
[TD]Won[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
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thePOGG
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Postby thePOGG » Sun Nov 10, 2013 9:46 pm

Week 10 results;

Washington Redskins/Minnesota Vikings take the over total 48.5 : Bet 7 units - Won (+7 units)
Philadelphia Eagles -1 over Green Bay Packers: Bet 10 units - Won (+10 units)
Buffalo Bills/Pittsburgh Steelers take the over total 43 : Bet 8 units - Lost (-8.8 units)
Seattle Seahawks -4 over Atlanta Falcons : Bet 6 units - Won (+6 units)
Denver Broncos/San Diego Chargers take the over total of 58 : Bet 7 units - Lost (-7.7 units)
Houston Texans +3 over St. Louis Cardinals : Bet 4 units - Push
Jacksonville Jaguars +13 over Tennessee Titans : Bet 4 units - Won (+4 units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1 over Miami Dolphins : Bet 4 units - Won (+4 units)

Total for the week :+14.5 units

Win % : 29 wins to 25 losses : 53%

Unit Win So Far : 0 units

Results at different bet sizes:

[TABLE="class: grid, width: 150, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]Lost[/TD]
[TD]Bet Size[/TD]
[TD]Won[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Auditing Service

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Aramon
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Postby Aramon » Mon Nov 11, 2013 5:15 pm

It certainly was a bumpy ride Sunday getting through all those games. But when the smoke cleared we managed a modest +3.5 unit win. Maybe not much in terms of what we had at stake yesterday, but a win no matter the size is good, and is always far better than a loss. Actually with the win we had on Thursday combined with yesterday's win, we are actually having a very nice week 10 of this NFL season by being up for the week +10.5 units. We look to add on to that total with Monday night's final game of the week. Here's what we have for tonight:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1 over Miami Dolphins Bet 4 units: Dolphins are in turmoil right now that has caused key pices of the offensive line to not be playing in this game. Tampa Bay while winless is actually playing competitive and improving. I like the Buc's to get their first win tonight against a Miami team in disarray.

For my comprehensive breakdown of tonight's game check it out at http://nflbettingtipsfree.blogspot.com/2013/11/aramons-201314-nfl-picks-week-10-monday.html
Aramon
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Posts: 370
Joined: Mon Oct 29, 2012 12:06 am

Postby Aramon » Thu Nov 14, 2013 6:46 pm

It seems we have hit stride! Another nice win Monday night capped off a fantastic week for us with an overall +14.5 win for the week catapulting us into the black. Well that's where we plan to stay as the season is red hot with opportunity now. I think our new week starts off with some value for us to keep this ball rolling. Here's what we have for tonight:

Indianapolis Colts -1 over Tennessee Titans Bet 3 units:
Colts are not nearly as bad as they played last week in their embarrassing loss to the Rams, and the Titans are just about on par as the team that lost to winless Jacksonville last week. The public betting made this one close in the point spread based on the Colts loss last week, we like that. The Colts are just flat out better than the Titans, its just that simple. Now there is no real points in the way to even it out.

For my comprehensive breakdown of tonight's game check it out at http://nflbettingtipsfree.blogspot.com/2013/11/aramons-201314-nfl-picks-week-11.html

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