|3 of a Kind or Better||0|
Summarizing the above table, the player played optimally in 556 out of the 560 hands or 99.29% of the time. The 4 hands played incorrectly are simply too few to make any substantial difference to our results. Even if all 4 hands had resulted in 3 of a Kind or Better this would not be even vaguely enough to affect the assessment of this game as unfair.
To demonstrate this we've switched these 4 hands from Losses to 3 of a Kind or Better hands and conducted a Chi Squared comparison. The Chi Squared test is used to compare data sets to establish if they've been drawn from the same distribution. In this case we're comparing the results we would expect in a fair 2 Ways Royal game and the results the player received (adjusted for the 4 misplayed hands).
This would leave us with the following results;
|Finishing Hand||Occurred||Expected||Correct Frequency||Actual Frequency|
|3 of a Kind or Better||4||61.47||11.0%||0.0071%|
We then took the figures in the above table and applied the Chi-Squared test to compare the expected results with the actual results;
(You can find a very handy Chi Squared calculator here - http://graphpad.com/quickcalcs/chisquared2/).
A small P (Probability) value (0.05 or less) is considered mathematically significant and indicates that the samples are not drawn from the same distribution. The Chi Squared calculator tells us that the P value for these samples is 'less than 0.0001'. To get an exact value we used Excel and received the following result;
Changing this to odds we get;
1 in 7,907,899,076,910
That's nearly 8 Trillion. To put this number in perspective, the Andromada Galaxy which contains at least twice the number of stars in the Milky Way, is estimated to have 1 trillion stars (source - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andromeda_Galaxy).
Simply put, given the strategy that the player employed and the results that they received there is no possibility that Skybook’s 2 Ways Royal Video Poker game was functioning fairly at the time that this player played.
Analysis of the Double Feature
After we’d concluded that the main game was not functioning fairly we looked at the player’s results when using the Double-Up feature. The results that the player received from the times that they chose to use their winnings on the Double-Up feature are shown below;
When playing a fair Double-Up feature the chances of winning and losing should be the same. As such if we exclude the Push data and look only at the Win/Loss results we would expect to get 14.5 of each and when we run the Chi Squared test again comparing the actual results with the expected results we get the following;
Again repeating the calculator give us a P value of ‘less than 0.0001’. To get the exact figure we look to Excel;
Once again it is clear that these results were not generated by a fairly functioning Double-Up feature.
Given that 2 entirely separate games are both functioning in a manner that could not be produced by games functioning in a fair fashion, this issue cannot be explained away as any type of coding or update error. The likelihood of 2 different games experiencing accidental errors at the same time is exceptionally small and this data set is far more likely to indicate a systematic integrity issue.
Whether the likely rigs are consistent in nature (present all the time) or triggered by some predetermined event - a player getting too far ahead, the casino daily/weekly/monthly results being below a predetermined level or some other trigger - we can't say for sure and would require further testing, but that there is something substantially wrong with this Video Poker game dealt to this player is entirely unquestionable.
It should also be noted that this is not the first time that Amigotechs Video Poker fairness has been called into question;
In each of the above issues - including this one - the effected games performed in a way that was beneficial to the casino and detrimental to the player. If we were to accept these reports as random mischance we would expect some to favour the casino and some to favour the player. With so many reported issues on top of our findings this situation paints a very dark picture of the integrity of Amigotechs software.
The bottom line - we would strenuously advise all players to avoid any casino using Amigotechs software. They were Blacklisted before this issue due to repeating software integrity issues and this player's experience only confirms that the Blacklist is the correct place for them. For ease of identification we've included a list of casinos we are aware of that use Amigotechs software;
If you are aware of any other properties using Amigotechs software we would appreciate you contacting us so we can add them to the list. You can reach me at [email protected].
If you are concerned about game results you've received at an Amigotechs casino I'd also encourage you to submit a complaint through our Complaint Service. I can't guarantee we'll always be able to reach the concrete conclusions we have in this case, but I'm always happy to take a look.
Skybook were informed of our investigation on the 2nd of April 2015. We received a response on the 6th of April 2015 simply informing us that Skybook management would be contacting the player directly on the 7th of April. As far as we're aware from communication with the player, that contact never occurred. We have received no further information or communication from Skybook at the time of this article's publication.
To be completely clear, Skybook were provided with a complete copy of this report on the 6th of April and informed of our intention to publish the report on Friday the 10th of April to allow them time to offer any response or to detail a planned course of action.
Amigotechs - the software provider directly responsible for the games in question - appear to have been informed about this issue by Skybook on the 6th of April. We assume this is the case as their CEO contacted us directly on the 6th regarding several unrelated issues with content on this site that they wanted changed (incorrect screenshots and a desire not to have their brand associated with the CasinoAffiliatesNow group). At the time of this contact Amigotechs were provided with a complete copy of this report and informed of our intention to publish the report on Friday the 10th of April to allow them time to offer any response or to detail a planned course of action.
There is currently an ongoing conversation with Amigotechs software. To keep to everything completely transparent I'm publishing everything in this conversation and will be updating this as further correspondence is sent/received. You can read the email exchange here - https://thepogg.com/conversations-with-amigotechs/.
Did the player get their money back?
As of the 30th of April 2015 we can confirm that the owner of Amigotechs software has personally repaid the player. We've received no explanation for the issue nor any indication that other players will be repaid.
At the time of publication Skybook casino have not returned any of the wrongfully incurred losses to the player ($7175).
This situation put the Dispute Mediation service I offer in a difficult position where the interests of the player who approached us with the issue conflict with those of the player community in general.
For the playing community in general insuring that this issue received as wide exposure as possible was a priority. The more players that are aware of this issue, the fewer players that can/will be affected by it in the future. As such publication of a report was the best course of action, helping to steer players away from this service and to the best online casinos.
For the player individually, the path that was most likely to return their losses is the right course of action. In all likelihood I would have had a far greater chance of getting this player's losses returned if I'd been prepared to deal with this quietly - i.e. spoken to the involved parties and stated that as long as the player's money was returned I wouldn't publish anything further regarding this issue.
So for players in general publication was best and for the individual that actually came to me looking for my help non-publication would have been the best road.
I chose to do what's in the best interests of the most people. While I hold to this decision as the best course of action, I view this choice as actively undermining the service that the player engaged with. Rather than helping the player my actions have hurt them.
As such, if Skybook do not step forward and return all losses from this playing session by the 20th of April I will be making efforts to repay this player myself.
I would like to thank the following people (in no particular order) for their critical eye in reviewing the findings and conclusions of this report;
- aka23 (Nolan) - Nolan is the owner of BeatingBonuses.com. BeatingBonuses has for many years been considered the premier site for online Advantage Play and Nolan is one of the premier gaming mathematicians in the business today.
- Eliot Jacobson - Eliot received his Ph.D. in Mathematics from Arizona University and has worked on both sides of the tables, both as a winning player and as a consultant on the development and protection of casino games. Amongst his many published works in the field of Mathematics he has written 3 books on casino gaming; 'The Blackjack Zone', 'Contemporary Casino Table Game Design' and 'Advanced Advantage Play'. Eliot's blog can be found at APHeat.net (this site has now been bought over).
- Michael Shackleford - Michael was the founder and is still the principal content writer for WizardOfOdds.com. He is an Adjunct Professor of Actuarial Sciences at the University of Las Vegas and is widely considered 'the' authority on all things gaming maths related.
Player's Hand History
To allow for independent verification of the player's results - and as such allow any curious individual to submit our analysis and conclusions to testing - below we've provided screen shots of the entire hand history for this player. We also have this information in the form of a video to insure against claims that the screen shots have been tampered with;
ThePOGG.com offers some great resources for players included mathematical evaluation to establish which is the best casino welcome bonus, and full casino reviews of new online casinos and the
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